Rs 4.4 lakh crore rally! Reliance Industries shares surge 26% in 2025. What’s fueling Ambani’s unstoppable run?
What’s driving this sharp rally? A perfect storm of catalysts across Reliance’s sprawling businesses — from surging refining margins and telecom tariff hikes to strong retail momentum and upcoming value-unlocking triggers.
Jio IPO
Jefferies has raised its target enterprise value for Reliance Jio to a whopping $180 billion, projecting that the company is well-placed to deliver 18%/21% CAGR in revenues/EBITDA over FY26–28. The key drivers include rising mobile tariffs, strong growth in the home broadband business led by fixed wireless access (FWA), the scale-up of the enterprise business, and monetisation of its tech stack. The brokerage has also raised its target EV/EBITDA multiple to 15x — a 10% premium to Bharti Airtel — citing Jio’s superior growth outlook.The telecom business is set to become an even bigger catalyst. Market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay expects the next quarter’s results to be “very positive” as the benefits of ARPU increases flow through fully. He also anticipates another ARPU hike before the end of the fiscal, which could trigger fresh momentum.
“Apart from that, of course, as we know, at the AGM there was an announcement that value unlocking through the listing of the telecom business will be done in the first half of the next calendar year. So that is expected to happen, and this value-unlocking event and its announcement will also trigger a lot of excitement in the counter,” Bandyopadhyay said.
But the telecom story is just one piece of the puzzle. ICICI Securities has upgraded Reliance to BUY with a target price of Rs 1,735, driven by strong retail momentum, visible progress in new energy initiatives, and the rising importance of its media segment. The brokerage projects a consolidated EPS CAGR of 15% over FY26–28, supported by Reliance’s diversified growth engines and improved visibility on returns. Free cash flow yields and return ratios are also expected to improve ahead of earlier estimates.
Also Read | Chris Wood of Jefferies sells Reliance Industries shares to buy Adani stock
O2C comeback
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, long seen as under pressure, is staging a strong comeback. Asia refining margins have improved amid healthy fundamentals, refinery maintenance, seasonal swings, and geopolitical developments. Spreads of middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) and gasoline have strengthened on resilient demand, with the outlook for jet fuel particularly positive ahead of winter heating needs, UBS said.
“Though we expect some moderation in spreads in December (as refineries come back from maintenance), we foresee above mid-cycle spreads sustaining amid project delays. Transportation fuels account for 66% of Reliance O2C’s products meant for sale. We build in O2C EBITDA rising from Rs 295 bn in H1 to Rs 340 bn in H2 FY26, and further to Rs 648 bn in FY27,” UBS said, while maintaining a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 1,820.
Last week, RIL said it has halted the import of Russian oil for processing at its export-only refinery in Jamnagar as it works to comply with European Union sanctions.
Bandyopadhyay dismissed concerns that reduced Russian crude purchases could hurt margins. “The way GRMs are shaping up, the way things are moving, Reliance is very well positioned to maintain its profitability and revenue from this segment as well,” he said, adding that “the O2C business has been performing well overall.”
Also Read | Reliance halts Russian oil imports for its only-for-export refinery amid US pressure
The retail business presents another potential value-unlocking opportunity. “Something can be done as far as value unlocking is concerned in the retail business — that has also become pretty big and some value-unlocking measures can be taken there,” Bandyopadhyay noted. “If and when that does get done, there will be excitement in the counter.”
With multiple growth engines firing simultaneously — telecom tariff hikes and a potential listing, refining margin expansion, retail strength, and progress in new energy — Reliance is positioned for sustained momentum. “We have been positive on Reliance for quite some time and we maintain our positive view,” Bandyopadhyay said. “With a slightly long-term view, Reliance can be bought even now.”
For the 44 lakh shareholders who weathered the turbulence of 2024, 2025 is shaping up to be a redemption story, and if these catalysts unfold as expected, this bull run may just be getting started.
