Commodity Ignition and a Monopolist about to Run – Fat Tail Daily

I love walking the dog while listening to financial podcasts.

They can often be dry at the best of times. But when you’re chucking a ball and looking at the wattle trees swaying in the breeze it’s easier to digest.

The other morning I was listening to a podcast with five fund managers giving five shocking predictions for 2025.

Matthew Kidman, the Chief Investment Officer at Centennial Asset Management, gave my favourite speech. He said thematic investing will always underperform in the long-run.

We can all get caught up in the frenzy of excitement as different themes catch the markets attention.

But as we saw with future facing metals such as lithium over the past few years, it can be incredibly dangerous following the herd.

Finding businesses with a sustainable competitive advantage is where you find outperformance. That’s why I give you one to consider in the Closing Bell video below.

But if you are going to hunt for opportunities in the sectors that are running, you must have a solid plan and know how to manage risk effectively.

Most hot sectors end up turning into a bust at some point. If you can make money out of them while they are hot…and then take the money and run when they tip over…you can do well.

But that involves using a trader’s mentality.

I explain how I go about it in detail for you in my ‘six lessons’ whitepaper, which tracks my development as a trader from the Sydney Futures Exchange trading floor to today.

If you are ever scratching your head while watching my Closing Bell videos, be sure to read that document so you can learn the nuts of bolts of my trading rules.

I promise you will learn something that you can action right away.

In today’s Closing Bell I discuss a stock that has sustainable competitive advantages at the end of the video. But before then I focus on the conundrum of whether or not the Chinese stimulus will mark the beginning of a new bull market in China.

I set out the key levels above and below current prices in the Hang Seng (Hong Kong stock market). So you know what to look out for as things progress.

If the stimulus can stop the rot in the Chinese property market and the US continues to drop rates, there are a bunch of commodities that look ripe to continue heading higher.

I show you a few of them in the video below.

If you enjoy the video today why not click on the YouTube button and press ‘like’ on the video. It really helps me to get my videos in front of more people, so I appreciate it!

Continue to the Closing Bell

I’ve put together insights from my 30+ years of trading that will help you navigate market volatility and improve your performance.

I believe that the key to long-term investing success is a solid trading plan and a long-term mindset. I put this into action in my service Retirement Trader.

You can learn more about my approach by clicking here to get access to 30 years of trading knowledge.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Retirement Trader and Fat Tail Microcaps

All advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal circumstances.

Please seek independent financial advice regarding your own situation, or if in doubt about the suitability of an investment.

Murray Dawes is our resident expert trader and portfolio manager. He is a former Sydney Futures Exchange floor trader who went on to design custom trading systems and strategies for ultra-wealthy clients (including one of Australia’s richest families). Today, his mission is to help ordinary Aussie investors make profitable investments, while expertly managing risk.

He uses his proprietary system for his more conversative and longer-term-focused service Retirement Trader…and then applies the same system to the ultra-speculative end of the Australian market in Fat Tail Microcaps (this service is strictly limited and via invitation only).