Forget American politics and read this: 3 tips for Australian investors, Pt. 3 – Fat Tail Daily

“It doesn’t matter whether a company is big or small. Capital structure matters. It always has and always will.”

— Mike Milken

Over the past two days, I’ve shared my first two tips for navigating today’s investment landscape: knowing your financial identity and paying attention to the cycle.

Today’s final tip might be the most practical of all.

I promise you it took me nearly 5 years of studying small companies to realise how BIG a deal this when you analyse a stock.

What I’m about to share with you hopefully creates an “AHA!” moment for you.

Once you see this, you may never look at small stocks the same way again.

Here’s the tip:

Understand capital structure.

Capital structure traditionally means how much debt and equity the company has.

This is particularly relevant to large companies worth billions.

But in the world of micro/small caps, it means something else entirely.

Companies worth just tens of millions sometimes.

This is how I look at it in a simple way:

If market capitalisation is the rough aggregate weight of the world’s perception of value in a company (shares on issue multiplied by share price)…

Then:

Capital structure is who values it, how much they value it, and how much there is to go around should people want it more.

For micro and small-cap investors, capital structure analysis is your bread and butter way of familiarising yourself with the overall setup of money behind a company.

It’s often the difference between backing a winner and getting caught in a dilution trap.

The anatomy of capital structure

When I analyse a small or micro-cap’s capital structure, I’m looking for several key features that can make or break an investment.

First, I usually want to see a low share count. A company with 800 million shares on issue at 2.7 cents tells me a very different story than one with 100 million shares at 24 cents, even though both have roughly the same market cap.

That high share count is often a leading indicator that the company has done multiple capital raises over the years.

Those raises can create a register full of holders at different entry prices, many of whom may be eager to exit into any good news or volume.

Second, I look for the presence of a cornerstone investor.

These are often institutional investors who’ve taken large positions and are likely in it for the long haul.

A cornerstone holding ~30-50% of the register creates a tight capital structure where fewer shares are available for trading.

Third, founder skin in the game matters enormously.

When the person who built the business holds a meaningful stake, their interests align with yours.

They’re not just managing your money, they’re protecting their own wealth.

Fourth, I examine board and management holdings.

Directors with significant personal investments think differently about company decisions than those drawing salaries without meaningful equity exposure.

Pretty straightforward – but you’d be surprised how many retail investors have no interest in these factors.

And they get burnt badly and wonder why!

The options trap

Then there’s the options situation, what we call “oppies” in Australia.

This is secret sauce stuff – so I won’t go too much into this out of respect to readers of my premium advisory service Fat Tail Micro-Caps.

But just be aware of what options are out there on a company.

In micro and small-cap land these are often unlisted options and have a range of expiries and exercise prices.

These are added to the simple market cap to create what’s called the fully diluted market capitalisation.

Why tight structures win

Over the last 8 years studying small companies, I’ve found that the companies that deliver the biggest gains typically have tight capital structures.

When a catalyst hits, there simply aren’t enough shares available for all the buyers who suddenly want in. This scarcity drives the price higher, faster.

I’ve seen quality micro-caps with tight registers move 300-500% on good news, while similar companies with loose structures might only manage 50-100% on identically impactful or significant announcements.

It’s basic supply and demand.

Reading the register

Most companies will show their capital structure in investor presentations.

You’ll see pie charts breaking down major shareholders, tables showing shares on issue, and schedules of outstanding options.

But the real work happens in the annual reports and ASX announcements. Track the company’s capital raising history.

Look for patterns. Has management been disciplined with dilution or have they raised capital frequently at low prices?

Pay attention to the top 20 shareholders list in annual reports. Are these names you recognise? Sophisticated investors or retail punters? Long-term holders or recent arrivals?

When you start to get to know these people on a first name basis (as I try to do) that’s when you see things in a whole new light.

But it can go wrong too…

The warning signs

Some capital structure red flags should make you pause.

A register dominated by retail holders who’ve watched massive capital destruction over several years. These frustrated investors will often exit quickly on any good news.

Multiple recent capital raises at declining prices. This creates layers of holders underwater at different levels, each waiting for their chance to break even.

Large numbers of options with low exercise prices that are approaching expiry during a period when catalysts might emerge.

Management or board members with minimal skin in the game relative to their salaries and fees.

The practical application

Understanding capital structure helps you position size appropriately and set realistic expectations.

In a tight structure, you might start smaller and build positions gradually because moves can be sharp and swift.

In a loose structure, you have more time but potentially less upside.

Most importantly, tight capital structures reward patience.

When the catalyst finally arrives, the payoff can be substantial because there’s nowhere for new buying interest to go except through the existing holders, and many of them aren’t selling.

This is why I spend so much time on capital structure analysis.

It’s not just about finding good companies, it’s about finding good companies with the right setup to reward shareholders when things go right.

After three days of tips, remember this: know who you are as an investor, understand the cycles that drive markets, and always check who’s sitting around the table with you.

The companies that can deliver you life changing returns often have all three elements aligned.

If these concepts interest you, be sure to check out Australian Small Cap Investigator where I use these principles to guide recommendations.

I see my role with this service as an educator as well as an analyst.

Thanks for reading this week.

Lachlann ‘Lachy’ Tierney is passionate about uncovering hidden opportunities in the microcap sector. With four years of experience as a senior equities analyst at one of Australia’s leading microcap firms, he has built a reputation for rigorous research, deep-dive due diligence, and accessible investor communications. Over this time, he has vetted seed, pre-IPO and ASX-listed companies across sectors, conducted onsite visits, and built strong relationships across the microcap space. Lachy is nearing completion of a PhD in economics at RMIT University, where his research focuses on blockchain governance and voting systems. His work is housed within the Blockchain Innovation Hub at RMIT, a leading research centre for crypto-economics and blockchain research. He holds a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics and an Honours BA in Philosophy and Politics from the University of Melbourne. Born in New York and raised in California, Lachy grew up a few blocks from biotech giant Amgen and counts among his peers various characters in the overlapping worlds of venture capital, technology and crypto. When he’s not researching microcaps, he’s most likely sweating it out in a sauna or dunking himself in cold Tasmanian water.

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