Retrospective Pt. 2 (Copper) – Fat Tail Daily

Editor’s Note: Lachy is away this week, taking a much-needed rest, but he’s put together a series of excerpts from his three services to showcase some of the macro commentary that members receive. Today, we have an excerpt of a buy recommendation from Fat Tail Micro-Caps that was published on 13 November this year. The ASX company in question is a rare ultra-high-grade micro-cap copper exposure that Lachy had been watching for months. Lachy uses a 5C system to perform due diligence on micro-cap companies (of which there are ~1500 on the ASX!). Today, we have a section of Lachy’s 4th C – Cycle, which is certainly looking good for copper right now. Since this piece was published, copper prices have gone up a further 7%. Below you can see what Lachy was saying to readers of Fat Tail Micro-Caps at the end of November.

C#4: Cycle

Copper took a beating when Trump wound back his copper tariffs, but I am a massive believer in its long-term trajectory.

Copper prices dropped mid-year as Trump exempted refined copper from 50% tariffs. US copper futures fell over 20% in August 2025. This unwound speculative positions built on tariff fears.

But it’s recovering strongly:

Source: Trading Economics

The long-term story is crystal clear to me, though.

I was lucky enough to see Canadian billionaire and mining legend Pierre Lassonde speak in Toronto last year.

He said: “Copper is the only critical mineral”.

What he meant by this was: all of our electrification and decarbonisation goals rely on copper to work.

The long-term fundamentals haven’t changed. The IEA still projects a 30% copper supply deficit by 2035.

Trump’s exemption actually acknowledges deep US reliance on copper imports while still protecting domestic manufacturing.

And grades are declining while mines have to go deeper and deeper.

The major miners of the world understand that high-grade deposits like Highway Reward become more valuable as global grades decline.

And as a result, companies like BHP and billionaires are stumping up big money for copper projects to get ahead of the curve.

Recent deals prove the appetite…

BHP paid C$4.1 billion for Filo Corp, and Harmony Gold bought MAC Copper for US$1.03 billion.

Gina Rinehart could end up shelling out US$120M for a copper project in Ecuador belonging to Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM).

And more recently, Central Asia Metals was in a bidding war for New World Resources at a big premium, which they lost out to Kinterra Capital Corp.

I’d also add that [hidden stock] has a good amount of gold on its hands at this project too, which will be a nice kicker to an excellent copper story.

Tomorrow – a look at crypto

Tomorrow we will have an excerpt from our crypto service which Lachy is Investment Director of. It’s called James Altucher’s Early Stage Crypto. There’s been plenty of wild swings in that part of the market, so stay tuned for that.