Dystopia or Opportunity? – Fat Tail Daily
It’s a messy world out there.
Some mash-up of dystopia and utopia.
For white-collar folks, it might feel like it’s you versus the machines. Every single day.
And if you’ve ever read the great dystopian works of fiction — 1984, Brave New World…well, was it ever science fiction?
(I used to work with the great nephew of Aldous Huxley in a London bar — true story)
Anyway, I’m a long way from that basement, and now I watch markets all day like a hawk.
I’ve learned to love watching the market game unfold in real-time.
And I’m confident that whichever way the world is leaning (dystopia/utopia), the market is pricing it all in.
Right now, the market is thinking: is the best trade in AI or rocks?
And to that I say, why not both!
For me, whatever the future, the first step is easy…
Step #1 is: get some rocks.
That’s the nutshell of everything.
So I’ve been working on a major investment thesis over the past six months.
I’ve put all my thoughts together in one place.
And very soon I want to share that with you.
It’s called PAX SILICA.
Pax Silica is about the very real strategic games playing out across the world right now.
And what you can do about it.
Inside the PAX SILICA report, I take you through what actually happened in December 2025.
Eleven countries quietly signed a resource pact. Australia was one of them.
I connect that to a barely-reported mineral discovery in Utah that caught my attention late last year.
The grades were eye-popping. The geopolitical implications even more so.
From there, I look at the stocks already moving on this theme.
Some of the re-rates have been violent. Both up and down.
I’ve pulled together a small basket of speculative names that I think are well-positioned as the PAX SILICA story plays out over the next couple of years and beyond.
They’re risky. I don’t sugarcoat that.
But the structural forces behind them are real and accelerating.
More on that very soon.
If it’s a brave new world… turns out…you need to brave with your investments as well.
Bitcoin remains under pressure, and I said last week I think it has broken beneath major support and could head lower.
To gain an insight into the prospects for Bitcoin, I had a look at the market cap of stablecoins.
When investors sell bitcoin, their funds are often shifted into stablecoins to wait out the volatility.
You would think stablecoin supply would have increased markedly as bitcoin prices fell and money flooded into them.
Not so.
Instead, stablecoin market cap has been falling in line with the falls in bitcoin.
What gives?
I think this is a strong hint that investors are selling their bitcoins and pulling money out of the crypto universe all together.
There is another funnel for money into and out of bitcoin now that ETF’s have begun trading.
Bitcoin ETF Assets Under Management
Source: The Block
[Click to open in a new window]
As you can see in the chart above, bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) AUM (Assets Under Management) has been declining sharply in line with the falls in bitcoin since October 2025.
Without the ‘money on the sidelines’ as funds leave the crypto space altogether, I think odds are that further downside volatility won’t see as much support as many expect. The target of US$30,000-40,000 that I gave last week may not be as far fetched as it sounds.
