Gold on the Gold Coast (Pt. 3): Trust in Gold – Fat Tail Daily

“When gold and jade fill the hall, their possessor cannot keep them safe.”

– Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching

Are we safe now?

With Iran war risks poised to fade (or get far worse), here we are on April Fools’ Day 2026, with the market unleashing an almighty bounce.

There are real risks to inflation from these high oil prices, though, no joke!

Commodities have long been an inflation hedge, and gold remains a big part of that basket.

So it’s no wonder that the shiny metal is so valuable right now.

(Even after a sharp sell-off this month.)

So today I’ve got a story for you about its true value when all else fails…

But first, behold! The wide-ranging
appeal of gold

Whether it’s corrupt Chinese mayors….

Source: X

Or mid 80s Scottish noise-rockers, The Jesus and Mary Chain:

Source: YouTube

It seems gold is the right coloured metal, at the right price.

It can also backstop society when things go haywire.

Which is not an aspect of gold’s value that should be underestimated.

What happens when you can’t trust
money? Or worse, there is none?

The much-talked-about debasement trade is one example of how trust in money is decaying.

But the extreme end of outcomes is what happens when there isn’t any “money” at all…

Now, I’m not a survivalist, but in October 2024, Hurricane Helene battered the US and dumped most of its rain on Asheville, North Carolina.

My parents were there at the time.

No communication for more than a week.

High death toll, billions in damage.

Then you read the headlines about water running out.

Then the cash machines go — and the phones still don’t work.

Then you think about societal collapse — these people are armed, this is the South.

Anyway, it all blew over after about a month of sponge baths and helicoptered-in military food rations for the dear folks.

Point is, doesn’t it sound handy in those moments to hold a bit of gold?

How I bartered a gold necklace for a taxi

On my way back from the gold conference on the Gold Coast, I left the phone in the Uber at the airport.

Debit card broken.

Sparing you the details, I quickly figured out what the play was.

I had to go to the airport taxicab rank and convince them I could pay them if I got my phone back from NSW, about 45kms away.

Luckily, a good friend had gifted me a gold necklace for completing my PhD – that was the lever I could pull.

I offered it, and the cabbie kept it in escrow with my ID on his side of the car.

Success! Through quick thinking, a wonderful network of friends, an Uber driver I got along really well with, and yes, gold…

There I was riding back to the airport, phone in hand, Punjabi hip-hop blaring out the rolled-down windows…on my way home.

I learned many lessons on this trip — but the one for investors today is simple.

It often pays to hold a bit of gold.

Physical or in a paper portfolio, doesn’t matter.

Especially considering some of the major moves afoot at the points where money, AI, and commodities intersect.

So, in the shared mentality of the gold investor or Ian Brown of the Stone Roses:

“I’m no clown, I won’t back down…
I don’t need you to tell me what’s going down…”

— Fools Gold, Stone Roses

After suffering through some serious volatility over the past few months, gold is finally perking up.

A simple reading of the state of play is that gold remains in a weekly uptrend, and an ABC overlap will occur if a weekly buy pivot is confirmed.

It is the first valid signal since the volatility began and could be worth pursuing.

But we remain in a fluid and volatile environment. If prices turned down and fell below the low at ‘C’, I wouldn’t want to overstay my welcome.

An ‘ABC’ strategy involves waiting for stop losses to be set off after prices fall below the low created at ‘A’.

Once prices return to the previous range, there is a high probability that the price will continue to rally towards the midpoint of the range.