February 2025 in Figures – Currency Thoughts
February 2025 in Figures
February 28, 2025
Aside from a 3% drop against the Japanese yen and a slightly greater than 1% rise versus the Chinese yuan, net dollar movements in February were extremely trivial.
Evidence emerged in the month than not only has U.S. disinflation progressed more slowly than hoped but also confidence in future U.S. growth has been shaken by the chaotic unveiling of radical policy changes by the Trump administration. Despite its open hostility to Europe and Canada, their stock markets outperformed America’s, and long-term interest rates fell more sharply in the U.S. than elsewhere.
Even by the customary volatility of crypto, Bitcoin’s price suffered an atypically sharp slide in a mere four weeks, which contrasted with a slight uptick in the price of old-school inflation hedges like gold.
Only the Bank of England among central banks included the table below had a scheduled policy review during the month, and officials there voted 7-2 in favor of the third 25-basis point interest rate cut with dissents by Mann and Dhingra favoring a reduction of 50 basis points. Recent rhetoric from ECB officials, who reduced their rates at the last meeting in January, signal likely additional cut during the coming week, while Fed officials have doubled down on a message that has investors not expected further easing before the second half of 2025 and perhaps not until late summer.
Other central bank interest rate changes during February included cuts of 50 basis points in New Zealand, Mexico and Iceland, as well as ones of 25 basis points in South Korea, Australia, Thailand, Namibia, Armenia, and the Czech Republic but also hikes of 90 basis points in Moldova and 50 basis points in Zambia.
| 10-Yr Yield | 02/28/25 | 01/31/25 | Change in Feb |
| U.S. | 4.21% | 4.54% | -33 Basis Points |
| Germany | 2.40% | 2.46% | -6 |
| Japan | 1.36% | 1.23% | +13 |
| U.K. | 4.48% | 4.54% | -6 |
| Canada | 2.90% | 3.06% | -16 |
| Switzerland | 0.38% | 0.33% | +4 |
| CB Policy Rate | 02/28/25 | 01/31/25 | February Chg |
| Fed funds target | 4.25-4.50% | 4.25-4.50% | 0 basis pts |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.75% | 2.75% | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 4.50% | 4.75% | -25 |
| Swiss Policy Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0 |
| FX | 02/28/25 | 01/31/25 | Feb Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.0375 | 1.0374 | 0.0% |
| USD/JPY | 150.51 | 155.10 | -3.0% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9028 | 0.9107 | +0.9% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2580 | 1.2400 | -1.4% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6206 | 0.6214 | +0.1% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5596 | 0.5641 | +0.8% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4464 | 1.4537 | -0.5% |
| USD/CNY | 7.2838 | 7.1871 | +1.3% |
| Equities | 02/28/25 | 01/31/25 | Change in Feb |
| S&P 500 | 5916 | 6041 | -2.1% |
| Nasdaq | 18847 | 19627 | -4.0% |
| Djia | 43841 | 44545 | -1.6% |
| Dax | 22551 | 21732 | +3.7% |
| Nikkei | 37156 | 39572 | -6.1% |
| Ftse | 8810 | 8674 | +1.6% |
| Canada TSE | 25296 | 25533 | -0.9% |
| Swiss SMI | 13004 | 12597 | +3.2% |
| Commodities | 02/28/25 | 01/31/25 | February Chg |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 70.00 | 72.53 | -3.5% |
| Gold, $ per ounce
Bitcoin, $ |
2868
84,258 |
2,835
102,089 |
+1.2%
-17.5% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2025. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: financial market movements during February 2025
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