Forex overview. US Dollar Could Find Some Seasonal Support – ForexNews.PRO
The US dollar has found a little support at the start of the week. Chinese authorities have now turned to fixing USD/CNY a little higher, which removes one of the dollar’s negative impulses from last week. The highlight of an otherwise quiet session will be today’s eurozone flash CPI release for August and the US ISM business confidence data
US dollar: September Seasonality In Play?
The US dollar is drifting higher in quiet conditions. Weekend news about US tariffs being ruled illegal has not had much impact so far. US Treasury yields have been marked a couple of basis points higher, and US equity futures are slightly lower. The focus this week is on US labour market data, with the next important input being tomorrow’s JOLTS job opening data.
First up, though, we get an update on the manufacturing sector today. Expectations are for a modest rise in ISM business confidence to 49.0, but still weak. There will be some latent interest in both the prices paid and the employment component, but we doubt this data will be a major determinant of dollar direction this week.
Away from the US data and the expected Fed 25bp rate cut on 17 September, we’re looking at two factors that could provide the dollar with some support. The first is a mini-reversal of last week. The People’s Bank of China has now fixed USD/CNY for the last couple of days. Our idea of a discrete, managed appreciation in the renminbi seems to have run its course for the time being.
One would not be surprised either to hear of Washington levelling new tariffs at BRICS nations after this week’s show of power in Beijing and the BRICS virtual summit next week to discuss US tariffs. This could be slightly negative for EM currencies as a whole, where global investors are overweight.
The second factor could be seasonal dollar strength. US corporates have a big tax date on 15 September, where dollar payments occasionally cause ripples in US money markets. This was the case in 2019. We note as well that the DXY US dollar index has rallied in seven of the last 10 Septembers. In short, it may not be one-way traffic to a lower dollar this September despite the prospect of softer employment figures and the looming Fed rate cut.
97.50 DXY support appears to be holding, and more range trading may be the order of the day.
EUR: Much Ado About CPI
There seems to be quite a lot of focus on the August eurozone CPI release today. Consensus expects headline to tick up to 2.1% YoY and core CPI to tick down to 2.2% YoY. The ECB hawks and doves seem evenly split, where the former group sees no need for rates to be taken sub-neutral (2.00%), while the latter is still concerned about undershooting inflation targets.
We actually doubt how much today’s data will impact the pricing of the ECB’s monetary cycle, where the market still prices a cut for the second quarter of next year. That seems strange, because next year we expect the effects of German fiscal stimulus to be felt, and if there is a window for a further ECB rate cut, we see it this year, not next.
EUR/USD looks quite comfortable at 1.1700 for the time being. Long positioning is probably the biggest risk to EUR/USD right now. But in theory, US jobs releases this week still have the potential to unlock some upside. EUR/USD looks likely to continue trading well within the 1.1650-1.1750 range for now.
