Unremarkable G20 Annual Summit and A Disappointing German Business Climate Survey – Currency Thoughts

Unremarkable G20 Annual Summit and A Disappointing German Business Climate Survey

November 24, 2025

(164) The 2025 summit of Group of Twenty government leaders, held over the weekend in Johannesburg, South Africa, will likely be remembered for the United States and Argentina boycotting the conference, which proved especially awkward because the U.S. is the designated host of 2026 summit. Climate change and wealth inequality were this year’s top priorities, and the very second paragraph released Declaration from the G20 stressed the interconnectedness of world nations in facing shared challenges. The U.S. represents only 4.25% of the global human population:

In the spirit of Ubuntu, we recognize that individual nations cannot thrive in isolation. The African philosophy of Ubuntu, often translated as “I am because we are”, emphasizes the interconnectedness of individuals within a broader communal, societal, economic, and environmental context. We understand our interconnectedness as a global community of nations and reaffirm our commitment to ensure that no one is left behind through multilateral cooperation, macro policy coordination, global partnerships for sustainable development and solidarity.

The Munich-based IFO Institute November survey of Germany’s business climate yielded an unexpected full point decline in corporate expectations. That sub-index fell to 90.6 from 91.6 in October, which had been the highest reading since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Reacting to that result, IFO officials observed “little faith that a recovery is coming anytime soon.” The overall IFO index, including a small improvement in perceived current conditions, fell 0.3 index points to a 2-month low of 88.1, which remains much closer to its 5-year low of 84.8 in the last month of 2024 than the 5-year high of 100.9 in June 2021. Among major business sectors in November, construction, manufacturing and trade weakened to 6-, 5- and 2-month lows, while services edged up to a 2-month high.

Japan’s market is closed this Monday in observance of the Labor Thanksgiving holiday. In other countries, financial markets have shone a muted tone, as investors await a heavy menu of data releases later in the week.

• The dollar rose overnight by 0.3% relative to the yen and 0.2% against the Australian and Canadian currencies and 0.1% versus the kiwi and sterling but fell 0.2% versus the euro and 0.1% vis-a-vis the peso and Swiss franc.
• Ten-year sovereign debt yields have slipped two basis points in the United States and France and a single bp each in Germany, Great Britain, Spain and Italy.
• Declines of 0.9%, 0.3% and 0.1% have occurred in the  prices of Bitcoin, gold and West Texas Intermediate oil.
• Stock market changes have been mixed, with gains of 1.9% in Indonesia, 0.6% in New Zealand and Singapore, and 0.2% so far in the U.K. but losses of 2.4% in Hong Kong, 1.6% in Australia, 0.9% in Italy, and 0.4% in India.
• Led by a 1.0% rise in the Nasdaq’s pre-open futures, each of the major U.S. stock indices were higher at an hour prior to today’s opening bell.

Lebanese consumer price inflation, which had plunged from 269% in April 2023 to 15.7% in October 2024 and a low this year of 13.0% in April, rose back to a 7-month high last month of 16.4%.

CPI inflation in Singapore printed at a 9-month high in October but a benign 1.2% versus the 55-month low of 0.5% hit in August.

Polish producer price inflation of -2.2% in October was more negative than analysts were expecting.

Finnish PPI inflation, which has ranged between -2.3% and +0.7% since April 2024, printed at a 7-month high of +0.2% last month.

Latvian producer price inflation in October was 0.3 percentage points higher at an 8-month high of 1.7%.

Turkish business confidence had a November reading of 100.8, much closer to its 5-year low of 97.8 in late 2022 than its 5-year high of 114.8 in July 2021.

Czech business confidence fell in November to a 4-month low, whereas Czech consumer sentiment hit a 71-month high.

Brazilian consumer confidence improved 1.3 index points in November to an 11-month high.

In Canada, monthly declines in manufacturing sales of 1.0% in August and 1.1% in October flanked a 3.3% rise in September.

Copyright 2024, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

Tags: Brazilian consumer confidence, G20 Declaration from Johannesburg, German business climate index IFO

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