Silver Saves the Precious Metals Rally. Forecast as of 28.11.2025 | LiteFinance
Silver’s fate is not decided only in New York and London. Developments in Shanghai are playing a bigger role now. Falling silver stockpiles on China’s largest exchanges raise the risk of new record highs in XAG/USD. Let’s discuss this and make a trading plan.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Silver inventories in China are shrinking fast.
- China is importing record volumes.
- Gold-to-silver shift supports XAG/USD.
- Buying silver above $53.53 remains relevant.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Silver
Put your own mask on first, then help the child. Everyone knows this rule on airplanes, but China seems to be ignoring it. It rushed to help Britain, where silver shortages became acute after the US added silver to its list of critical minerals. Rising odds of import tariffs triggered flows from London to New York, and from Shanghai to London. As a result, silver stockpiles on China’s biggest exchanges dropped to their lowest levels since 2015–2016, and XAG/USD is now preparing to retest record highs.
Silver Inventories on Shanghai Exchanges
Source: Bloomberg.
Any structure is likely to fail at its most vulnerable point. China is the largest silver consumer, and Q4 typically sees a seasonal peak in solar panel demand. At the same time, capital is rotating within the precious metals sector. Gold prices are so high that consumers are turning to jewelry made from gold substitutes. The government’s decision to cancel VAT refunds for retailers pushes XAU/USD even higher and forces buyers to look for alternatives.
No surprise that in October, China’s silver imports jumped to a record 660 tonnes. There is a clear silver shortage in the country, which keeps futures in a permanent backwardation.
Conditions in China’s Silver Market
Source: Bloomberg.
China’s influence has made silver behave differently from other precious metals. Gold, platinum, and palladium are still struggling to recover after October’s sell-off. That leaves XAG/USD as the clear leader of the sector. Silver prices have risen by more than 80% since the start of the year and are well ahead of rivals.
Silver has the same tailwind as gold: expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts. This puts pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields. Precious metals benefit from this environment, and investment demand rises.
However, silver does not face the same headwind as gold. The 2022–2025 rally in XAU/USD was driven largely by central bank buying as part of de-dollarization and reserve diversification. Those purchases stemmed from the shift toward a bipolar world following Russia’s war in Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia. If tensions in Eastern Europe ease further, gold loses a key support. Silver could take advantage of that.
A thaw in US–China relations is fueling rumors that these two countries will now decide the fate of the global economy. This shift is already showing up in precious metals.
Weekly Trading Plan for XAGUSD
In my view, the Fed’s monetary easing and China’s silver shortage can push the bulls toward new record highs. If they manage to keep prices above $53.53 per ounce, buying setups stay valid. If not, it makes sense to bet on gold weakening and sell XAG/USD.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XAGUSD in real time mode
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