What goes up must come down…

• $15 trillion erased from silver/gold prices on Friday
• Central banks and geopolitics back in focus
• Bitcoin falls below $75,000 for first time in 10 months
• NFP report on Friday may rock global markets

More than $15 trillion was erased from the value of gold and silver last Friday.

This monstrous amount was equivalent to half the size of the entire US economy.

• Silver nosedived almost 40%
• Gold tumbled nearly 15%

Precious metals have kicked off the new week under renewed pressure already flashing red this morning:

• XAUUSD: ↓ 5%
• XAGUSD: ↓7%

The selloff was triggered by Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair.

Opinions remain divided over whether Warsh will align with Trump’s view on how the Fed should be run, given his past status as an “inflation hawk’.

Traders are still pricing a less than 40% chance that the Fed cuts rates by April.

WHAT COULD MOVE SILVER/GOLD THIS WEEK:

• US Partial government shutdown

Over the weekend, the US government entered a partial shutdown adding another layer of uncertainty to current developments.

This negative development may toss the Fed back into the wilderness as the absence of clear data complicates monetary policy planning.

So, another round of extended delays may force the Fed to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach on rates as it “drives in the fog”.

Last week, Trump threatened to attack Iran while saying he would impose tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba. Should tensions escalate, this may offer much-needed support to precious metals facing a bout of profit-taking and dollar strength.

• US January NFP report –

The incoming NFP report could shape the metals outlook for February as discussed in the week ahead report.

Bitcoin slips to fresh 10-month low

Bitcoin tumbled to a fresh 10-month low in Asia trading on Monday, dipping below $75,000.

The “OG” crypto shed fell 11% in January, marking its fourth straight monthly decline — the longest losing streak since 2018…

The overall unrest across global markets and the absence of buyers have contributed to the recent declines.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded three consecutive months of outflows while technical indicators signal the rise of bearish pressures.

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

BULLISH: A move back above the 50-day SMA at $87,500 could signal an incline toward $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000.

BEARISH: Sustained weakness below $77,500 could send prices toward $70,000 and lower.