Extended Easter Holiday Keeps Many Markets Shut… But Glimmer of Relief Emerges from Rumored Scramble to Forge a 45-Day Ceasefire

April 6, 2026

Most of Europe and many other markets (for example, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain, Portugal and the Netherlands) remain closed for Easter Monday. These closures and a very thin data release menu have muted trading volume. The United States is not one of the countries still closed today.

Unconfirmed reports of progress being made in truce talks involving Iran, the United States and neutral regional negotiators such as Pakistan has cut through the extremely dark mood of last week that had deepened further after President Trump’s threat to bomb all Iranian power plants and bridges if a deal can’t be reached by April 7. Hope has also sprouted from news of somewhat greater shipping traffic getting through the Strait of Hormuz.

During the Middle Eastern war, the dollar has correlated negatively with signs of lessening hostilities. The overnight session was no exception, as the dollar fell back by 0.7% against the Mexican peso, 0.5% versus the South Korean won and both Australian and New Zealand currencies, 0.4% relative to sterling, 0.1% versus the yen and 0.3% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc and 0.2% against the euro and loonie.

Among the few stock markets that were open, gains were made of 0.6% in Japan, 1.4% in South Korea, 1.1% in India, and 0.5% in Singapore and Pakistan. The 10-year Japanese JGB and U.S. Treasury yields ticked up three and one basis points.

The price of West Texas Intermediate oil got as high as $115.48 earlier today but is currently showing a net 1.1% decline at $110.36 per barrel. Gold and silver have risen by 0.8% and 0.5%.

Non-oil purchasing manager indices in Egypt and Saudi Arabia got slammed by the war, falling in March to 23- and 72-month lows of 48.0 and 48.8. India’s revised composite and service sector PMI readings last month are slightly above their preliminary estimates but, at 57.0 and 57.5, still their lowest readings in 40 and 14 months, respectively. Singapore’s private PMI dropped 2.5 index points to a nine-month low of 57.5.

Serbian producer price inflation accelerated sharply in March to a 36-month high of 5.8% from 0.2% in February and a 9-month low of -0.3% in January. Tunisian consumer price inflation in March matched February’s 5.0% reading. Both followed January’s 58-month low of 4.8%.

Retail sales in Singapore were 8.3% greater in February than a year earlier, the biggest such advance in three years.

Spanish employment unexpectedly fell 22.9k last month.

Addendum from four hours later: Iran has communicated elements of a response to Trump’s deadline with intermediaries but is still refusing to talk with either U.S. or Israeli negotiators. U.S. stocks opened higher but are only marginally so. The 10-year Treasury yield is a bit lower. Oil has crept back above $111.5 per barrel. Bitcoin shows a more significant upward move of 4.1% versus Friday.

U.S. PMI survey results were reported. The S&P Global composite purchasing managers index was revised 1.1 points lower to 50.3, indicating its lowest pace of positive growth in two and a half years due mainly to services, which fell to a 38-month low and sub-50 score of 49.8. Demand fell to a 23-month low, and optimism about the future deteriorated as well. The non-manufacturing U.S. PMI compiled at the Institute of Supply management fell back 2.1 points to a 2-month low of 54.0 in spite of a 37-month high in orders. Sub-indices for activity and employment weakened to 6- and 27-month lows, and inflation jumped from a February reading of 63.0 to a 41-month high of 70.7.

PMI surveys were also released for

Canada where the composite and service sector readings stayed below 50 for a fifth straight month but at, 47.6 and 47.2, by the least in the streak.
Brazil where the composite score dropped 1.7 points, swinging to a 4-month low of 49.6. A 3.6-point slide in the services sub-index to 50.1 did the most damage.

Tags: Easter Monday, Iran war update, U.S. composite and service PMIs

This entry was posted
on Monday, April 6th, 2026 at 5:23 am and is filed under New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update.
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