With No Fresh Shift in Middle East Crisis, Market Attention Shifts to Resilient Corporate Earnings Reports – Currency Thoughts
With No Fresh Shift in Middle East Crisis, Market Attention Shifts to Resilient Corporate Earnings Reports
April 24, 2026
The dollar slid 0.1-0.2% overnight against major currencies but rose 0.5% against the beleaguered Indonesian rupiah. Major U.S. equity indices were lifted by better-than-presumed first-quarter corporate profits in firms such as Intel, HCA Healthcare and Procter & Gamble. Among stock exchanges in other countries, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 1.0% higher, while India’s Sensex fell 1.3%. The German Dax is currently 0.6% higher, while marginal dips have occurred in the U.K., France, Spain and Italy.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has edged a basis point lower. In contrast, 10-year sovereign debt yields have risen three bps in Switzerland, 2 bps in the U.K. and 1 basis point in Japan and Italy.
President Trump and the leaders of Iran each believe they will be above to tolerate the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz beyond the other side’s breaking point. Soon to enter its ninth week, the Middle East war appears destined to persist several weeks longer. There continue to be some violations from each side in the 3-week extended cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. The failure of diplomacy is propping the price of WTI oil in the mid-$90s per barrel. Without a breakthrough soon, many places in the world will be plunged into humanitarian crises from a lack of food and energy.
Bitcoin‘s price is unchanged from the Thursday closing level, while precious metal prices are slightly higher.
Central banks in Russia and Kazakhstan announced interest rate decisions after scheduled reviews of their monetary policies.
As expected, the Central Bank of Russia cut its key rate by a further 50 basis points to 14.5%. This was the fifth such reduction since October and brings the cumulative drop to 650 basis points since this cycle began in June 2025. At the newly reduced interest rate level, monetary policy remains restrictive when compared to actual consumer price inflation of 5.9% in both February and March. Officials noted that “Proinflationary risks still prevail over disinflationary ones on the mid-term horizon. The key proinflationary risks are associated with a deterioration in the global economic outlook and rising global price pressures amid increased geopolitical tensions, as well as with high inflation expectations and a long period of wage growth outpacing growth in productivity.”
The National Bank of Kazakhstan’s policy interest rate was kept at 18%, and that decision had also been anticipated. Between November 2024 and last October, the rate was hiked to the current level from 14.25%, after CPI inflation had risen from 8.3% to 12.9%. Inflation has since settled back to an 11-month low 11.0% but remains well above the 5% medium-term objective. According to a released statement, “Pro-inflationary risks are primarily associated with the strengthening of external inflationary pressure amid the conflict in the Middle East. Current disinflationary processes are facilitated by the gradual normalization of consumer demand, including a slowdown in retail lending. The emerging disinflationary dynamics require further consolidation. Before transitioning to the easing of monetary conditions, it is necessary to obtain confirmation of the sustainability of the disinflationary process.
The April German business climate survey compiled by the IFO Institute reveals that business confidence in Euroland’s largest economy absorbed a significantly larger blow than realized from the Middle Eastern war. The overall index sank to a 71-month low of 84.4, as expectations dropped to a 32-month low of 83.3, having touched 90.3 just two months earlier. All four major sectors weakened, led by a 251-month low in trade and including a 71-month low in services, a 14-month low in construction and a 12-month low in manufacturing.
French consumer confidence fell in April to a three-year low, and the 5-index point month-to-month slide was the most since March 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
British consumer sentiment dropped to a 30-month low in April.
Czech consumer confidence weakened to a 7-month low this month, but business confidence held steady at March’s 5-month high.
Brazilian consumer sentiment rebounded this month to a 4-month high.
A 0.7% monthly rebound in British retail sales last month following February’s 0.6% decline exceeded expectations, but the rise was just 0.2% if fuels are excluded.
Chinese foreign direct investment in the first quarter of 2026 was 7.3% lower than a year earlier, perpetuating a contracting trend that included calendar year declines of 9.5% in 2025, 27.1% in 2024 and 8.0% in 2023.
Today’s batch of price data releases included news that
- Total Japanese consumer price inflation ticked up to 1.5% in March from February”s 1.3% 47-month low. The increase reflected a smaller 5.7% on-year drop in energy costs versus a February reading of -9.1%.
- Japanese corporate service price inflation accelerated to a 6-month high of 3.1% in March.
- Spanish producer price inflation swung from -6.9% in February to +3.4% in March.
- Swedish PPI inflation of 2.0% in Marh was the most in 13 months, but Finnish producer price inflation receded to 2.0% from February’s 3-year high of 3.8%.
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: British and French consumer confidence, Central Bank of Russia, German IFO Business climate index, Japanese CPI and corporate service prices, National Bank of Kazakhstan
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