August 2025 in Figures – Currency Thoughts
August 2025 in Figures
August 29, 2025
Although the Federal Open Market Committee did not have a scheduled policy review during August, the U.S. central bank was constantly in the spotlight during the month, as President Trump took several actions meant to strip the Fed’s image as a independent manager of U.S. monetary policy. While the firewalls against interference in U.S. monetary policy once seemed impenetrable, great damage was inflicted on that image during the month, and all that seemingly remains from handing over interest rate decisions to the government’s executive branch is a seemingly unlikely ruling by the Supreme Court in favor of Governor Cook and against the president having the right to fire her.
Based on numerous historical examples where political interference in monetary policy led to higher inflation, higher long-term interest rates, and sluggish growth, financial markets in August did not react to that risk. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell relative to other sovereign debt yields. The dollar extended the declines experienced earlier this year, but currency market trading was orderly with nothing like a dollar rout taking place. Equities rose in the United States and elsewhere for the most part.
Central Bank interest rate changes this past month included a two percentage point cut in Egypt and reductions of 25 basis points by the Bank of England, South African Reserve Bank, Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Mexico, Central Bank of the Philippines, Central Bank of Uruguay, Bank Indonesia, and Bank of Thailand.
Whereas prices for Bitcoin and oil dropped 8.9% and 7.6% during August, gold advanced 5.1% and closed above $3500/ounce.
| 10-Yr Yield | 08/29/25 | 07/31/25 | Aug Change |
| U.S. | 4.23% | 4.36% | -13 Basis Points |
| Germany | 2.72% | 2.69% | +3 |
| Japan | 1.59% | 1.54% | +5 |
| U.K. | 4.72% | 4.59% | +13 |
| Canada | 3.37% | 3.45% | -8 |
| Switzerland | 0.24% | 0.30% | -6 |
| CB Policy Rate | 08/29/25 | 07/31/25 | Aug Change |
| Fed funds target | 4.25-4.50% | 4.25-4.50% | 0 Basis Points |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 4.00% | 4.25% | -25 |
| Swiss Policy Rate | 0.0% | 0.00% | 0 |
| FX Rates | 08/29/25 | 07/31/25 | Aug Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1698 | 1.1414 | -2.4% |
| USD/JPY | 146.95 | 150.79 | -2.5% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8000 | .8120 | -1.5% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3512 | 1.3210 | -2.2% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6545 | 0.6426 | -1.8% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5899 | 0.5891 | -0.1% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3732 | 1.3855 | -0.9% |
| USD/CNY | 7.1300 | 7.1944 | -0.9% |
| Equities | 08/29/25 | 07/31/25 | Change in Aug |
| S&P 500 | 6460 | 6347 | +1.8% |
| Nasdaq | 21456 | 21122 | +1.6% |
| Djia | 45545 | 44131 | +3.2% |
| Dax | 23902 | 24065 | -0.7% |
| Nikkei | 42718 | 41070 | +4.0% |
| Ftse | 9187 | 9132 | +0.6% |
| Canada TSE | 28687 | 27303 | +5.1% |
| Swiss SMI | 12188 | 11836 | 3.0% |
| Commodities | 08/29/25 | 07/31/25 | Change in Aug |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 64.01 | 69.26 | -7.6% |
| Gold, $ per ounce
Bitcoin, $ |
3516.10
107,861 |
3345.10
118,454 |
+5.1%
-8.9% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2025. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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