Dogecoin Price Analysis: What to Expect From DOGE in August?

Dogecoin price shows no signs of stopping its six-day down candlestick close streak, which began on July 27. So far, DOGE has lost nearly 16% of its market value and will likely continue this descent.

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Dogecoin price performance in August

The recent drop in Dogecoin price shows no signs of stopping despite the 16% drawdown. If this downtrend continues, long-term investors will get a good chance to buy the dip. The image below shows that the first meme coin showed consistent, weak performance in the third quarter. Historical data for the past decade suggests that the average price performance in Q3 is 1.55% or near zero, with a median performance of –7.14%.

Dogecoin price quarterly performance

A finer data set shows that Dogecoin price performance in August yielded an average return of 0.28% and a median performance of -5.23%.

Dogecoin price monthly performance

Supporting the “buy the dips” narrative is on-chain data. The buy signal that flashed for DOGE in early July is still valid and forecasts a high probability reverse. Santiment’s 365-day Market Value to Realzied Value (MVRV) metric dipped to -21% in the first week of July, suggesting the investors that purchased DOGE over the past year are at an average loss of -21% on their initial investment.

As seen in the past, the MVRV value between -15% and -30% has served as a good place for accumulation, leading to a price reversal and massive rallies. If history repeats, investors can expect the July 5 swing low of $0.091 to be a bottom that leads to a recovery rally.

Dogecoin price 365-day MVRV chart

DOGE Price Ready to Reverse Downtrend

From a technical standpoint, the ongoing downtrend for Dogecoin price could end around the $0.107 and $0.113 support zone. If sidelined buyers or long-term investors step in and accumulate DOGE here, the reversal could lead to a volatile uptrend.

Dogecoin price will encounter the first key level of $0.128 after a 14% rally from $0.113. Beyond this, investors can expect DOGE to revisit the $0.148 hurdle, critical support between March and May 2024. Flipping this barrier into a support floor could send DOGE to retest the $0.175 to $0.181 resistance zone. This Dogecoin Price Forecast constitutes a 55% gain from $0.113 and is likely where DOGE could form a top.

DOGE/USDT 1-day chart

On the other hand, a breakdown of the $0.107 to $0.113 support zone will invalidate the bullish thesis for DOGE and potentially result in a 15% crash to the July 5 swing low of $0.0913.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Dogecoin’s price is currently experiencing a six-day down candlestick close streak, losing nearly 16% of its market value since July 27, with no signs of stopping

Historical data suggests that Dogecoin’s price performance in Q3 is typically weak, with an average return of 1.55% and a median performance of -7.14%. August specifically has yielded an average return of 0.28% and a median performance of -5.23%.

The $0.107 and $0.113 support zone is a crucial area for a potential price reversal. If this zone holds, DOGE could rally to $0.128, $0.148, and potentially $0.175 to $0.181. However, a breakdown below this zone could lead to a 15% crash to the July 5 swing low of $0.0913.