Early Q3 GDP Tracking

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 11:41:00 AM

From BofA:

Next week, we will initiate our 3Q GDP tracker … [August 8th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

[W]e boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.1%. [August 7th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 7, unchanged from August 5 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.76 percentage points to 0.82 percentage points. [August 7th estimate]