Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (17.06.2024 – 23.06.2024)

2024.06.12 2024.06.12 Economic calendar for the week 17.06.2024 – 23.06.2024

Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/

The most important events of the coming week may be: the RBA’s decision on the interest rate, inflation data in the UK, meetings of the Central Banks of Switzerland and the UK and the publication of preliminary PMI indices for Europe and the USA.

In addition, in the week 17.06.2024 – 23.06.2024, market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics for the UK, China, New Zealand, and the USA.

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled. Time is GMT

Monday, June 17

02:00 CNY Industrial production. Retail sales index

The China National Bureau of Statistics Industrial Production Data Report shows the output of Chinese industrial enterprises such as factories and production facilities. The growth of the indicator (industrial production) is a positive factor for the yuan, also indirectly signaling the possibility of accelerating inflation rates, which could put pressure on the People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy.

Conversely, a decrease in the indicator could have a negative impact on the yuan.

Previous values ​​(annualized): +6.7%, +4.5%, +7.0%, +6.8%, +6.6%, +4.5%, +3.7%, +4.4%, +3.5%, +5.6%, +3.9%, +2.4% (in February 2023).

Retail Sales Index is published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and measures total retail sales and cash receipts. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and economic well-being and reflects the health of the retail sector in the near term. A rise in the index is usually a positive for the CNY; a decrease in the indicator will have a negative impact on the CNY. Previous index value (annualized): +2.3%, +3.1%, +5.5%, +7.4%, +10.1%, +4.6%, +2.5% , +3.1%, +12.7%, +18.4%, +10.6%, +3.5%, -1.8%, -5.9% (after an increase of +8% in the last months of 2019 and a fall of -20.5% in February 2020).

Data indicate a continued recovery in this sector of the Chinese economy after a strong decline in February–March 2020. If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast or previous values, then the CNY may weaken, perhaps sharply.

Tuesday, June 18

04:30 AUD RBA’s interest rate decision. RBA’s accompanying statement

The RBA policymakers have kept the interest rate at 4.10% since June 2023. However, at a meeting in November 2023, they raised the interest rate again to 4.35%.

The main negative factors for the Australian economy are weak wages growth, a weak labor market and a slowdown in growth rates.

At the end of the March meeting, the Central Bank of Australia kept the rate at 4.35%. Head of the RBA Michelle Bullock said during a press conference that “we need to be more confident that inflation will weaken to consider a rate cut.” Earlier RBA leaders did not eliminate the possibility of a new tightening of RBA policy in the event of new signals of growth in consumer inflation.

What their decision will be this time is not yet entirely clear, although it is possible that at this meeting the Central Bank of Australia will again raise the interest rate.

In the meantime, the RBA officials are widely expected to take another pause.

In an accompanying statement, the RBA leaders will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of easing monetary policy in the near future, then the risks of a fall in the Australian dollar will increase. Conversely, tough rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement could provoke a strengthening of the Australian dollar.

05:30 AUD Press conference of the RBA

During the press conference, the RBA head Michelle Bullock will assess the current situation in the Australian economy and will likely reveal the monetary policy plans of the department. Market participants would also like to hear Bullock’s views on central bank policy amid recessions across the world and high inflation in Australia.

Any signals from her regarding plans to change the parameters of the RBA’s monetary policy will cause a sharp increase in volatility in the AUD and in the Australian stock market. If the head of the Central Bank of Australia does not touch upon the topic of monetary policy, then the market reaction to her speech will be weak.

12:30 USD Retail sales. Retail control group

Retail sales. This Census Bureau report reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. Changes in retail sales are a leading indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. A high result strengthens the US dollar, a low result weakens it. A relative decrease in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar, while an increase in the indicator will have a positive impact on the USD. In the previous month (April), the indicator value was 0% (after +0.7% in March, +0.6% in February, -0.8% in January 2024, +0.6% in December 2023, + 0.3%, -0.1% +0.7%, +0.6%, +0.7%, +0.2%, +0.3%, +0.4%, -1.0 %, -0.6%, +3.2%, -0.8%, -1.1%, +1.1%, -0.2%, +0.7%, -0.4%, +1.0% in previous months).

Retail sales are the leading indicator of consumer spending in the United States measuring changes in retail sales.

Retail sales are an indicator of domestic consumption, which accounts for the main contribution to the US GDP and is one of the main factors in increasing or decreasing inflation risks. The deterioration of this indicator is therefore a negative factor for the dollar.

Slowing inflation could push the Fed officials to begin easing monetary policy in September, economists say. At the same time, most market participants still expect 2 interest rate cuts this year.

Retail Control Group measures volume across the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most products. A strong result strengthens the US dollar, and conversely, a weak report weakens the dollar. A slight increase in indicators is unlikely to accelerate the growth of the dollar. Data worse than the values ​​of the previous period (-0.3%, +1.1%, 0%, -0.4% in January 2024, +0.8%, +0.4%, +0.2%, + 0.6%, +0.1%, +1.0%, +0.6%, +0.2%, +0.7%, -0.3%, +0.5%, +2, 3%, -0.3%, -0.5%, +0.4%, +0.5%, +0.4%, +1.1% in the previous months of 2022) could negatively impact the dollar in short term.

23:50 JPY Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee

If the tone of the minutes indicates a tough stance by the Bank of Japan regarding monetary policy in the country, this will negatively affect the Japanese stock market and strengthen the yen. Conversely, soft rhetoric regarding the bank’s monetary policy prospects will contribute to the weakening of the yen and the growth of the Japanese stock market.

Following the last meeting, the Bank of Japan maintained its extra-loose monetary policy without changes. The bank’s board decided to leave the key short-term rate in force at 0%. The Bank of Japan’s management has emphasized its intention to keep interest rates extremely low for an extended period of time.

Wednesday, June 19

In the US, banks and stock exchanges are closed: Americans celebrate the Day for the Abolition of Slavery. Due to the absence of major American players on the market, trading volumes during the American trading session will be lower than usual.

06:00 GBP Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services included in the British consumer basket. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation. Its publication causes active movement of the pound on the foreign exchange market, as well as the London Stock Exchange FTSE100 index.

In the previous reporting month (April), consumer inflation rose by +0.3% (+2.3% annualized) after +0.6% (+3.2% annualized) in March, +0.6% (+3.4% annualized), -0.6% (+4.0% annualized) in January 2024, +0.4% (+4.0% annualized) in December. The data suggests that inflationary pressures still remain in the UK, which is likely to support the pound, especially if the data turns out to be higher than expected.

An indicator value below the forecast/previous value could trigger a weakening of the pound, as low inflation will force the Bank of England to maintain a loose monetary policy.

Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is published by the Office for National Statistics and measures changes in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services (ex food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the GBP, a negative result weakens it.

In April, the growth rate of Core CPI also slowed down, amounting to +3.9% (in annual terms) after +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.1% in January 2024, December and November, after growing by +5.7% +6.1%, +6.2% 3 months earlier. It is likely that the publication of the indicator will have a short-term positive impact on the pound if its value is higher than the forecast and previous values. An indicator value below the forecast and/or previous values ​​may trigger a weakening of the pound.

22:45 NZD New Zealand GDP for the 1st quarter

The release of the data will cause increased volatility in the NZD. Given the recent rise in commodity and agricultural prices (especially dairy, which is a key component of New Zealand’s exports), and the fact that New Zealand has been least affected by the coronavirus pandemic compared to other large economies, it is likely that the New Zealand GDP report for the 1st quarter of 2024 will be released with positive indicators.

Previous values ​​(annualized): -0.3%, -0.6%, +1.5%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +6.4%, +0.3%, +1.0%, +3.0% (in the 4th quarter of 2022).

The data remains inconsistent, although it points to a halt in the gradual recovery of the New Zealand economy in the third quarter of 2023 after its collapse in the first half of 2020. Data worse than previous values ​​will have a negative impact on the NZD quotes.

Thursday, June 20

07:30 CHF SNB’s decision on interest rates. Statement of the National Bank on Monetary Policy

Before the June 2022 SNB meeting, the current deposit rate was in negative territory and amounted to -0.75%. However, following this meeting of the central bank, the rate was raised to -0.25%.

In an accompanying statement, head of Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan noted that the Swiss franc is no longer grossly overvalued and that “tighter monetary policy aims to prevent inflation from becoming more widespread in Switzerland.”

The franc has recently become a popular safe haven asset again, but the threat of intervention is certainly keeping the franc from rising too high. According to SNB leaders, intervention in the foreign exchange market remains “an important means of maintaining the low attractiveness of investments in francs and easing upward pressure on the currency.”

The deposit rate is widely expected to be kept at 1.5% at the end of the June 2024 meeting, after it was unexpectedly cut by 0.25% at the March meeting.

Traders will also be carefully studying the SNB’s statement to pick up signals regarding the SNB’s future monetary policy plans. Tough rhetoric of the statement will help strengthen the franc. The soft tone and tendency to resume the extra soft monetary policy of the SNB will negatively affect the franc. High volatility is expected in the foreign exchange market and, above all, in franc trading if the management of the National Bank makes unexpected statements.

08:00 CHF Press conference of the SNB

After the publication of the decision on the rate, a press conference of the Swiss National Bank will begin. During the event and the speech of SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, the volatility in the CHF trading increases, and traders are waiting for signals regarding the further plans of the SNB monetary policy. Tough rhetoric of Jordan’s speech will help strengthen the franc. A soft tone of the speech and the tendency of the SNB to pursue a soft monetary policy will have a negative impact on the franc.

High volatility is expected in the foreign exchange market and, above all, in the franc trading.

11:00 GBP Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England. Planned volume of asset purchases by the Bank of England. Monetary Policy Report

At the end of the August 2023 meeting, the interest rate was increased to 5.25%. Members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee considered it appropriate to raise borrowing costs in a strong labor market to curb price increases. At the same time, further tightening of monetary policy may be required to bring inflation to the target level of 2.0%.

However, starting from the September 2023 meeting, the Bank of England is taking a wait-and-see approach.

It is likely that at this meeting the Bank of England will again take a break, despite the still high level of inflation in the country and the fact that positive macro data are coming from the UK, given the difficult geopolitical situation in Europe, in particular in Ukraine.

At the same time, there are more and more supporters of the opinion among economists that the Bank of England may lower interest rates. However, the market’s reaction to such a decision can be completely unpredictable.

Also at this time, the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England are published with the breakdown of votes for and against raising/lowering the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are related to expectations of a slowdown in the country’s economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK’s balance of payments.

Intrigue about the Bank of England’s further actions remains. In the pound and the FTSE100 index futures trading, there are plenty of trading opportunities during the period when the bank’s decision on rates is published.

Also at the same time, the Bank of England’s monetary policy report will be published containing an assessment of the economic outlook and inflation. At this time, volatility in pound quotes may increase sharply. One of the main benchmarks for the Bank of England regarding the outlook for monetary policy in the UK, in addition to GDP, is the rate of inflation. If the tone of the report is soft, the British stock market will receive support and the pound will decline. Conversely, the report’s tough rhetoric on curbing inflation, implying further interest rate hikes in the UK, will lead to a stronger pound.

Friday, June 21

06:00 GBP Retail sales

The economic indicator “Retail Sales” tracks the level of consumer demand and is the most important indicator influencing the market and quotes of the national currency. It is also an indirect indicator of inflation, thus being of interest both to the country’s central bank and to market participants.

The Retail Sales Report is produced by the UK Office for National Statistics. Changes in retail sales are generally considered an indicator of consumer spending. In general, a high indicator is a positive factor for the GBP, while a low value is a negative factor.

Previous index values: -2.3%, +0.8%, -0.4%, +0.7%, -2.4% (in January 2024), +1.3% (in December 2023 ), 0%, -1.1%, +0.4%, -1.1%, +0.6%, +0.1%, +0.5%, -1.2%, +1, 0%, +1.3 (in January 2023) and +0.1%, -2.5%, -1.0%, -1.3%, -3.1%, -1.6%, -2.3%, -3.4%, -3.9%, -3.5%, -5.2 (in January 2023) in annual terms.

07:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing and Services PMI according to S&P Global. Composite PMI according to S&P Global (preliminary release)

The PMIs for the manufacturing and services sectors are important indicators of business conditions and the overall health of the German economy. These economic sectors form a significant part of Germany’s GDP. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, while a result below 50 is negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.

Previous values:

•  Manufacturing PMI: 45.4, 42.5, 41.9, 42.5, 45.5, 43.3, 40.8, 39.6, 38.8, 40.6, 43.2, 44 ,5, 44.7, 46.3, 47.3, 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6 ,
•  Services PMI: 54.2, 53.2, 50.1, 48.3, 47.7, 45.7, 48.2, 50.3, 52.3, 54.1, 57.2, 56 ,0, 53.7, 50.9, 50.7, 49.2, 46.1, 46.5, 45.0, 47.7, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6 , 56.1, 55.8,
•  Composite PMI: 52.4, 50.6, 47.7, 46.3, 47.0, 47.4, 45.9, 46.4, 48.5, 50.6, 53.9, 54.2 , 52.6, 50.7, 49.9, 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55 ,1, 55.6.

08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI according to S&P Global. Composite PMI according to S&P Global (preliminary release)

The Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI are important indicators of the health of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the EUR, while a result below 50 is negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.

Previous values:

•  Manufacturing PMI: 47.3, 45.7, 46.1, 46.5, 46.6, 44.4, 43.1, 47.2, 42.7, 43.4, 44.8, 45 ,8, 47.3, 48.5, 48.8 (in January 2023),
•  Services PMI: 53.2, 53.3, 51.5, 50.2, 48.4, 48.8, 47.8, 48.7, 50.9, 52.0, 55.1, 56 ,2, 55.0, 52.7, 50.8 (in January 2023),
•  Composite PMI: 52.2, 51.7, 50.3, 49.2, 47.9, 47.6, 46.5, 47.2, 48.6, 52.8, 54.1, 53.7 , 52.0, 50.3, 49.3 (in January 2023).

13:45 USD US Manufacturing and Services PMI according to S&P Global. Composite PMI according to S&P Global (preliminary release) 

These PMI indices in the most important sectors of the US economy prepared by S&P Global are important indicators of the state of the American economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, while a result below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar.

Previous PMI indicator values:

•  Manufacturing PMI: 51.3, 50.0, 51.9, 52.2, 50.7, 47.9, 50.0, 49.8, 49.0, 46.3, 48.4, 50, 2, 47.3, 46.9, 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5,
• Services PMI: 54.8, 51.3, 51.7, 52.3, 52.5, 51.4, 50.6, 50.1, 52.3, 54.4, 54.9, 53, 6, 50.6, 46.8, 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6.
• Composite PMI:: 54.5, 51.3, 52.1, 52.5, 52.0, 50.9, 50.7, 50.2, 52.0, 53.2, 54.3, 53.4, 52.3, 50.1, 46.8 (in January 2023).

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode