Equities Well-Bid in Spite of Persistent Global Growth Concerns – Currency Thoughts
Equities Well-Bid in Spite of Persistent Global Growth Concerns
October 15, 2025
Today was the scheduled day for U.S. consumer price data to have been released, but that didn’t happen due to the continuing shutdown of the federal government. The Fed is left to assess growth and price trends from non-government sources, and such are seemingly pointing to rate cuts this month and December too, not to mention the possibility of more easing in 2026. Comments yesterday by Fed Chairman Powell dwelling on a signs of a softer labor market have been particularly influential in solidifying confidence that rate cuts are coming. Market participants await the Fed Beige Book of regional economic trends due later today.
Another big theme has been a resurgence in trade war concerns. The U.S. and China have announced port fee hikes against one another. It’s been hard to pin down where President Trump plans, saying on the one hand that everything will work out fine but on the other mulling whether to just break trade ties with its rival.
In overnight financial market action,
- The dollar has dipped slightly.
- Ten-year sovereign debt yields are down four basis points in the U.K., 3 bps in France and Germany, a basis point in the U.S. but unchanged in Japan.
- Most equity markets are higher including gains of more than 1% in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and France.
- Gold moved above $4200 per ounce to another record high. Bitcoin is 0.9% softer. Oil is under the $60 threshold.
Japanese industrial production in August has been revised to show an even bigger on-month drop of 1.5% (deepest decline in 9 months and associated with a 1.6% on-year decline.
Euroland industrial production dropped 1.2% in August, most since April, and that cut its 12-month rise to 1.1% from 2.0% in July.
Chinese CPI inflation of -0.3% in September was a tad less deflationary than August’s 6-month low of -0.4%. Chinese producer prices were 2.3% lower than in September 2024.
French CPI inflation of 1.2% in September was its highest in 8 months and unrevised from the preliminary estimate. Likewise, consumer price inflation was left unrevised in Poland at 2.9%, Sweden at 0.9%, and in Croatia at 4.2%. Bulgarian CPI inflation of 5.6% was its highest since August 2023. Slovakian CPI inflation rose to a 2-month high of 4.3%. Danish producer price inflation of 0.9% last month was at a 14-month low.
The Empire State manufacturing index recouped almost all of the sharp decline in July. It printed at +10.7 versus readings of -8.7 in July and +11.9 in June.
The Bank of Nambia’s interest rate was cut 25 basis points to 6.5%. That’s the second decrease this year following a similar 25-bp reduction in February and three 25-bp cuts in the second half of 2024. The rate had crested at 7.75% from June 2023 until August 2024. Namibia’s CPI inflation reading last month was 3.5%.
France has decided not to impose pension reforms just yet. The decision was suspended until after the next presidential election.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Fed Chairman Powell, Japanese and Euroland industrial production, U.S.-China trade tensions
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