Firm Dollar at the Start of a Week with Many Potential Market-Moving U.S. Data Releases – Currency Thoughts

Firm Dollar at the Start of a Week with Many Potential Market-Moving U.S. Data Releases

August 11, 2025

(179) Compared to the close of U.S. trading before the weekend, the dollar has advanced by 0.6% against the Swiss franc, 0.5% on a weighted basis and versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.4% relative to the euro and Mexican peso, 0.3% vis-a-vis sterling, the Australian dollar, Korean won and Canadian dollar, and 0.2% against the Japanese yen. In a continuing adjustment to fresh speculation that the the Fed will cut its interest rate target next month and again at one of the two fourth-quarter scheduled policy reviews, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a basis point lower in contrast to single basis point increases in comparable sovereign debt yields in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The 10-year British gilt yield has dropped four basis points, while the 10-year Japanese JGB yield is unchanged.

Bitcoin initially jumped sharply to less than 0.5% from the record high of $122,321 set July 14, but that gain was then trimmed by to a net rise of 0.8% currently. The price of gold has dropped 2.5%, while that of WTI oil is unchanged from Friday’s close.

U.S. equities are little changed, as investors await a slew of U.S. data reports over the rest of this week, such as consumer prices, producer prices, import prices, retail sales, industrial production, the monthly fiscal deficit and consumer confidence. Data highlights from other countries later in the week include 2Q GDP for Euroland, Russia, Japan and the U.K.; British and Australian labor market statistics; and Chinese retail sales, industrial production, unemployment and fixed asset investment. Central bank interest rate decisions will be announced in Australia, Thailand, Norway and Peru, and several Fed officials will be speaking publicly in the period. Putin and Trump hold a meeting in Alaska (presumably near Anchorage) on Friday in an effort to end Russia’s war with Ukraine, and OPEC publishes its monthly report.

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