Forex analytics. The dollar divides spheres of influence – ForexNews.PRO
The beginning of 2026 creates a sense of deja vu. Only instead of trade wars, the United States threatens the rest of the world with armed conflicts. Instead of global dominance, Washington intends to dominate the Western Hemisphere. If in 2025 Donald Trump used the tactic of “hitting your own to make others afraid,” now the divide-and-rule approach is in fashion, and growing uncertainty helps the “bears” on the EURUSD.
Russia and China reacted cautiously to the events in Venezuela. Moscow hopes that the United States will help it put an end to the conflict with Ukraine. The Kremlin is asleep and sees the capture of Greenland by the Americans, which will destroy NATO. Then we can expand our sphere of influence to Eastern Europe. Beijing hopes that the White House’s focus on the Western Hemisphere will allow China to solve problems in Asia.
As a result, the direct confrontation between the West and the East is changing to a behind-the-scenes game. This creates uncertainty and problems for the business. Until the situation clears up, the threat of a slowdown in economic growth outside the United States will grow. Markets are beginning to revive the chances of a resumption of monetary expansion cycles, which leads to a decrease in global bond yields and strengthens the US dollar.
For the euro, the situation is compounded by a series of disappointing data. The weakness of German retail sales and the return of European inflation to the 2% target led to a drop in the eurozone economic surprise index by the monthly bottom. The futures market has shifted the timing of the expected increase in the deposit rate from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027. Traders have raised the chances of the ECB resuming its monetary expansion cycle in the second half of this year. German bond yields have fallen, and so has the EURUSD.
The disappointment with Europe contrasts with the success of the United States. American business activity in the service sector from ISM jumped to its highest level since October 2024, and private sector employment from ADP increased by 41 thousand in December after a 22 thousand decline in November.
Curiously, after the weak November ADP report, BLS produced impressive figures for non-farm payrolls. If history repeats itself and the US labor market is pleased, the US dollar risks serious strengthening. So wouldn’t it be better to sell EURUSD on rumors?
Thus, the growing uncertainty due to the policy of US dominance in the Western Hemisphere and expectations of strong US employment figures for December contribute to the fall of the main currency pair.
