Forex analytics. The dollar is afraid of a trade war – ForexNews.PRO

Sell America, de-dollarization and loss of trust. Fears about the resuscitation or acceleration of these processes have put an insurmountable barrier in the way of EURUSD “bears” to the south after Donald Trump announced the introduction of 10% additional tariffs on a number of European countries. Which could rise to 25% from June unless an agreement is reached on the full purchase of Greenland.

Deja vu. Investors have already seen this pattern. In 2025. Then, on the Day of America’s Liberation, colossal tariffs were imposed, launching the “sell America” narrative. The main task of the White House was to use threats to achieve significantly lower, but still solid 15% import duties. That’s how the TACO trade was born, or Trump always backs down. It allowed stock indexes to register an impressive rally, and the US dollar to improve its position in the second half of the year.

However, if foreign trade was at stake in 2025, then Greenland will be at stake in 2026. Scott Bessent calls Europe weak in order to ensure its security, and provokes Brussels into a full-scale trade war. In which all means are good. From suspending the previously reached agreement on 15% fees. Before the introduction of EU duties on American imports and the activation of the so-called anti-coercion mechanism.

Otherwise it is called a bazooka. These include export controls, the imposition of tariffs for services, restrictions on intellectual property rights, barriers to American companies wishing to bid on government contracts, and much more.

The United States and Europe are once again on the verge of a large-scale trade war, and the experience of last year is forcing investors to buy rather than sell the EURUSD. At least until TACO starts operating. But before the escalation of the conflict over Greenland, hedge funds became net sellers of euros for the first time since early November.

Yes, Europe looks more vulnerable. However, it is able to reorient supply chains, as China has done. In 2025, China’s foreign trade surplus, despite tariffs, reached a record high of $1.19 trillion. Its economy expanded by the 5% planned by the authorities.

The USA is another matter. Tariffs will be absorbed by American companies and households, which will slow down economic growth, increase the chances of an early resumption of the Fed’s monetary expansion cycle and weaken the dollar. For whom everything started so well in 2026.