Forex analytics. To the Fed dollar – not specified – ForexNews.PRO
The Moor has done his job, the moor can leave. According to Jerome Powell, the economy is strong, the labor market is stabilizing, and the fact that inflation is mainly driven by tariffs is good news. It would be worse if the driving force behind the price increase was domestic demand. Such rhetoric may signal a prolonged pause in the cycle of monetary expansion, which is good for the US dollar. However, what does it matter that the fate of greenback is determined by the speeches of White House officials, and not by macro statistics?
A good cop and a bad cop. A child and an adult in the same room. Call it whatever you want, the essence won’t change. First, Donald Trump brings the markets to a state of hysteria with his antics, then the Minister of Finance calms investors down. Scott Bessent said that the United States did not interfere in the foreign exchange market to sell greenbacks against the yen. Washington has always had a strong dollar policy. The USD index may rise over time as imbalances in foreign trade are eliminated.
Against this background, the “hawkish” bias of Jerome Powell, who spent more time emphasizing that inflation has not yet been defeated than usual, could help the “bears” on the EURUSD. The market is convinced that the Fed will extend the pause until a new chairman appears and has been catching dovish notes in the speech of the outgoing head of the central bank. Such, for example, as the priority of employment over the economy. According to Jerome Powell, labor market indicators are easier to interpret.
Pressure on the US dollar was exerted by the unexpected dissent of Christopher Waller. No one doubted that Trump’s man Stephen Miran would vote for a rate cut. Warren is another matter. Rumors began to spread around the market that he wanted to become the new chairman of the Fed too much, so he decided to take such a step. Indeed, the chances of an FOMC governor have increased significantly.
There are always two currencies in any pair. The strengthening of the euro against the backdrop of the US dollar falling into the abyss is not at all part of the ECB’s plans. In 2025, Vice President Luis de Guindos said that the eurozone would have a hard time if the EURUSD quotes exceeded 1.2. The European Central Bank risks not meeting its inflation forecast and returning to easing monetary policy. The head of the Bank of France, Francois Villaroy de Galo, claims that the regulator will take into account the events taking place on Forex when making verdicts on rates.
However, when confidence in the US dollar has been shaken, it will be almost impossible for the ECB to deter investors from selling off the greenback and the entire class of American assets.
