Gold Price Increases As Safe-Haven Demand Surges. Forecast as of 23.12.2025 | LiteFinance
The gold price is being driven by a number of bullish factors, such as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed, debasement trading, geopolitical turmoil, de-dollarization, diversification of reserves, and demand for bullion from central banks. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan for the XAU/USD.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Gold has set its 50th record in 2025.
- The gold market has diverged from the oil market.
- Russia is selling gold to China.
- Long positions on XAU/USD can be opened above 4,445.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Gold
Judging by the divergent trends in gold and oil, the global economy is going through a rough patch. The precious metal has set its 50th record high since the beginning of 2025 and is heading for its second-best annual result in history. The first occurred in 1979, against the backdrop of a massive energy crisis and rampant inflation.
Gold and Oil Performance
Source: Bloomberg.
According to Goldman Sachs, gold and crude prices will continue to diverge in 2026. A record surplus in the oil market will contribute to the accumulation of reserves, and crude prices will decline. Meanwhile, competition between retail investors and central banks for bullion will drive the precious metal to $4,900 per ounce.
JP Morgan cites an even higher figure of $5,000 by the end of 2026. According to the bank’s estimates, every 100 tons above 350 tons of quarterly demand from investors and central banks leads to a 2% increase in XAU/USD quotes. The bank expects to see 585 tons each quarter. This translates into a 4.7% price increase for this period and almost 20% for the year.
Gold is rising thanks to the return of debasement trading, expectations of a continued Fed cycle of monetary expansion, and concerns about the central bank’s independence. Gold safeguards against financial and political instability and geopolitical risks. In this regard, the conflict between the US and Venezuela, US strikes in Syria, and uncertainty over peace in Ukraine are prompting investors to maintain their holdings of the precious metal.
The fall in Treasury bond yields and the US dollar are creating a perfect environment for gold. According to CME data, major players are counting on 10-year Treasury yields returning to 4%. This leads to a fall in real yields, weakens the greenback, and becomes a tailwind for the XAU/USD.
US Treasuries Open Interest and Daily Volume
Source: Bloomberg.
De-dollarization and diversification of gold and foreign exchange reserves are still in full swing. Russia continues to sell oil and gold to China. In November, the figure reached $961 million, the largest trade volume between the two countries in history. For the second month in a row, the amount exceeds $900 million. Against this backdrop, Societe Generale claims that Beijing is concealing the true scale of its gold purchases. Most likely, the figure is closer to 250 tons than the announced 25 tons.
Thus, gold has plenty of drivers to keep its rally going. What could prevent this? Perhaps the only reason would be an unexpected strengthening of the US dollar. This could happen either because of a prolonged pause in the Fed’s easing cycle or because of improvements in the US economy.
Weekly Trading Plan for XAUUSD
If XAU/USD quotes fail to stay above 4,445, short-term sell-offs may occur. As long as the precious metal remains above this level, long positions can be opened with targets of $4,850 and $5,050 per ounce.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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