How Low Can Silver Go? Silver Price Prediction and Why XAG/USD Is Falling
Silver price
is falling for the third straight session on Friday March 13,
testing below $82 per ounce and the 50-day EMA, as the market gives back a
portion of the gains built on this week’s geopolitical tailwind. The white
metal is now in a consolidation that could resolve in either direction, and the
stakes are significant.
In this
article, I will break down XAG/USD technical analysis, examine the bearish case
for silver that a growing number of analysts are making, and compile the key
silver price predictions for the rest of 2026. Based on my over 15 years of
experience as an analyst and retail investor, here is what I am watching.
Follow
me on X for real-time crypto market analysis: @ChmielDk
The
immediate trigger for this week’s selling is straightforward: the risk
premium is unwinding. Silver surged toward
$90 earlier this week on
the back of US-Iran geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand, but as those
tensions show no signs of immediate escalation, the hot money that drove the
move is rotating back out. The dollar has also firmed, adding mechanical
pressure to dollar-denominated commodities including silver.
There is a
deeper structural problem sitting underneath the weekly noise. Silver rose
nearly $50 in a single month at the start of 2026, hitting the
all-time high of $121.62 in January. It then lost the entire move in just
two trading sessions – the most violent drawdown on this market since
the 1980s Hunt Brothers episode.
That kind
of price action leaves psychological damage. Traders who chased the rally and
were caught by the reversal are still sitting on losses, and many are using
bounces to reduce exposure rather than add to it. As my earlier
analysis of the 13% two-day collapse noted, the CME margin hike from 15% to 18%
accelerated the forced liquidation cascade and broke the speculative momentum
that had been building since October 2025.
Silver Technical Analysis:
The Same Box, Now Testing the Floor
As my
technical analysis shows, silver has been falling for three consecutive
sessions and is on Friday March 13 testing below $82 per ounce –
the level of the 50-day EMA. That is a meaningful test, but it
changes very little about the broader chart structure.
Silver has
been trading within the same consolidation range since early February.
The lower boundary sits around $70 per ounce – the December
and February lows. The upper boundary is the local peak zone at $90-$94,
tested twice at the start of March. At $82, we are sitting in the middle of
this channel. The market is digesting the extraordinary volatility of the
year’s opening weeks and appears to be consolidating before its next
directional move.
Why silver price is going down? Source: Tradingview.com
The two
scenarios on my chart are clear and the outcomes diverge sharply. A
break above $94 with volume opens the path back toward the all-time
high near $120 with no meaningful technical resistance between
those two levels – blue sky territory. A break below $70 activates
a very different story: the path to the 200-day EMA at $60, and
ultimately toward the October 2025 highs near $55, which together
form a substantial structural support zone. From current levels, that downside
scenario represents a decline of at least 35%.
The 50 EMA
at $82 is the immediate battle line. A daily close back above it on Friday or
early next week would ease the near-term selling pressure and keep the
consolidation symmetrical. A close below it would tilt the near-term bias
toward testing $80 – the mid-channel support where the December 2025 historical
highs also cluster – before any decision on the $70 boundary becomes relevant.
|
Level |
Type |
Notes |
|
$121.62 |
All-time high (Jan 2026) |
Full |
|
$90-$94 |
Upper consolidation band |
Tested |
|
$82 |
Current price (Mar 13) |
50 EMA |
|
$80 |
Mid-channel support |
Dec 2025 highs, 50 EMA cluster |
|
$70 |
Lower consolidation band |
The |
|
$60 |
Bear target 1 |
200-day EMA |
|
$55 |
Bear target 2 |
Oct 2025 highs, -35% from current |
|
$50 |
Extreme bear |
JP Morgan Kolanovic target |
The Bearish Case: Who Is
Calling for Lower Prices
The silver
bull community has dominated the narrative for most of 2025-2026, but a
meaningful minority of analysts and market observers are making the opposite
case – and their arguments deserve honest examination.
Former JP
Morgan Chief Strategist Marko Kolanovic is the most prominent institutional
bear. He predicts silver could crash back to $50 per ounce in
2026, roughly half the January highs, arguing the rally was “driven by
speculation rather than fundamentals” and that 50% drops are
historically normal after such rapid gains.
He is not
wrong about the historical pattern – silver has a long track record of
spectacular advances followed by equally spectacular collapses when the
speculative overhang unwinds.
On X, Arya
Yalmmanian warns of “significant suffering for silver investors over the
next 12 months,” citing long-term sentiment models that show downside
ahead. The note of humility is worth highlighting: he added he hopes his models
are wrong this time.
My long-term models, which are based exclusively on sentiment indicators, show that silver investors will suffer considerably over the next 12 months.
I would like nothing more than for them to be wrong this time.— Ara Yalmanian (@AraYalmanian) March 11, 2026
Yannis Kokkinias takes
a more structural bearish view, pointing to a rising DXY, reduced global
production numbers, and the argument that lower margin requirements going
forward will “enable banks to slam prices via shorts.”
He is the
most cynical: “technicals and fundamentals are obsolete – bankers control
the price.” That framing is common in the silver community and is partly
informed by the decades-long history of position concentration in silver
futures among a handful of large financial institutions.
Patrick technicals or fundamentals are obsolete right now . For silver, everything is bearish. Margins increase or decrease, shortages, solar panels etc don’t matter.
Bangsters can drive the price down whenever they decide to. To any level.— Yannis Kokkinias (@kokkiyann) March 6, 2026
The most
measured bearish scenario comes from Sanju Lakshya who sees silver bottoming
near the $60-$70 support zone and then spending extended time
in a $60-$80 range rather than mounting a sustained recovery.
That view aligns closely with my own chart’s 200-day EMA target of $60 as the
floor of the bear case and is perhaps the most technically grounded of the
bearish views.
#Silver forecast :
I see bottoming near 60-70 Support Zone , and one more attempt to 95-105 before seeing long term consolidation in 60-80 Zone— Super Trader Lakshya #STL (@Sanju_Lakshya) February 2, 2026
Why the Bull Case Is Still
Alive at $82?
The bearish
views above represent a genuine minority amid broader optimism, and it is
important to provide balance. The physical supply deficit that drove silver to
$121 in January has not disappeared. The Silver Institute’s data shows annual
supply shortfalls running at 110-300 million ounces, and COMEX registered
inventories remain severely depleted after the January
delivery squeeze withdrew
33.45 million ounces in a single week.
Bank of
America’s Michael Widmer maintains his $135-$309 target and the structural thesis
behind it – gold-to-silver ratio compression, industrial demand from solar and
AI infrastructure, and Eastern market buying – remains intact. Citi’s $150
three-month forecast issued in late January was premised on “relentless Chinese
buying and dollar weakness.” The Chinese demand story has not changed.
What changed is the dollar, which has partially recovered from its four-year
lows.
The
critical point on my chart is $70. As long as silver holds above
that lower consolidation boundary, the bull and bear cases remain evenly
balanced and the upside to $120 is technically just as valid as the downside to
$55. The break will tell us which story this market is telling.
Silver Price Predictions
2026: From $50 to $309
The
forecast range for silver in 2026 remains one of the widest of any major asset
class, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the physical market can
sustain prices at multiples of historic norms.
|
Source |
Silver Target |
Timeframe |
|
Marko Kolanovic (ex-JPMorgan) |
$50 |
2026, speculative unwind |
|
HSBC |
$68 average |
Full year 2026 |
|
JP Morgan base case |
$81 average |
Full year 2026 |
|
Sanju Lakshya |
$60-$80 range |
Extended consolidation |
|
My bear target |
$55-$60 |
If $70 breaks |
|
MEXC technical model |
$100-$121 |
Mid-2026 if $94 breaks |
|
Bank of America (Widmer) |
$135-$309 |
Full year 2026 |
|
Jochen Staiger |
$111 → $146 → $185 |
12-18 months |
|
My bull target |
$120 |
If $94 breaks with volume |
FAQ, Silver Price Analysis
How low can silver go in
2026?
As shown on
my chart, a break below the $70 lower consolidation boundary opens
the path to the 200-day EMA at $60, and ultimately toward the
October 2025 highs near $55 – representing at least a 35%
decline from Friday’s $82 price.
Why is silver going down
this week?
Silver is
falling for a third consecutive session as the geopolitical risk premium built
up earlier this week unwinds, the dollar firms from multi-year lows, and
traders who chased the January $121 all-time high continue using bounces to
reduce exposure.
What is the silver price
prediction for the rest of 2026?
The range
of credible forecasts spans from JP Morgan’s $81 average and Kolanovic’s $50
crash scenario at the bearish end to Bank of America’s $135-$309 target and
independent analyst Jochen Staiger’s $185 projection at the bull end. My
technical analysis identifies the $70 lower boundary as the pivotal
level – above it, both scenarios remain open. Below it, the bear case
accelerates toward $60 and then $55. A break above $94 opens the path back to
$120 with no technical resistance in between.
Is the silver bull market
over?
Not yet –
but it is on notice. The supply deficit of 110-300 million ounces annually and
the depleted COMEX registered inventories provide genuine structural support.
The 50 EMA at $82 must hold on a closing basis for the near-term technical
picture to remain neutral.
Silver price
is falling for the third straight session on Friday March 13,
testing below $82 per ounce and the 50-day EMA, as the market gives back a
portion of the gains built on this week’s geopolitical tailwind. The white
metal is now in a consolidation that could resolve in either direction, and the
stakes are significant.
In this
article, I will break down XAG/USD technical analysis, examine the bearish case
for silver that a growing number of analysts are making, and compile the key
silver price predictions for the rest of 2026. Based on my over 15 years of
experience as an analyst and retail investor, here is what I am watching.
Follow
me on X for real-time crypto market analysis: @ChmielDk
The
immediate trigger for this week’s selling is straightforward: the risk
premium is unwinding. Silver surged toward
$90 earlier this week on
the back of US-Iran geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand, but as those
tensions show no signs of immediate escalation, the hot money that drove the
move is rotating back out. The dollar has also firmed, adding mechanical
pressure to dollar-denominated commodities including silver.
There is a
deeper structural problem sitting underneath the weekly noise. Silver rose
nearly $50 in a single month at the start of 2026, hitting the
all-time high of $121.62 in January. It then lost the entire move in just
two trading sessions – the most violent drawdown on this market since
the 1980s Hunt Brothers episode.
That kind
of price action leaves psychological damage. Traders who chased the rally and
were caught by the reversal are still sitting on losses, and many are using
bounces to reduce exposure rather than add to it. As my earlier
analysis of the 13% two-day collapse noted, the CME margin hike from 15% to 18%
accelerated the forced liquidation cascade and broke the speculative momentum
that had been building since October 2025.
Silver Technical Analysis:
The Same Box, Now Testing the Floor
As my
technical analysis shows, silver has been falling for three consecutive
sessions and is on Friday March 13 testing below $82 per ounce –
the level of the 50-day EMA. That is a meaningful test, but it
changes very little about the broader chart structure.
Silver has
been trading within the same consolidation range since early February.
The lower boundary sits around $70 per ounce – the December
and February lows. The upper boundary is the local peak zone at $90-$94,
tested twice at the start of March. At $82, we are sitting in the middle of
this channel. The market is digesting the extraordinary volatility of the
year’s opening weeks and appears to be consolidating before its next
directional move.
Why silver price is going down? Source: Tradingview.com
The two
scenarios on my chart are clear and the outcomes diverge sharply. A
break above $94 with volume opens the path back toward the all-time
high near $120 with no meaningful technical resistance between
those two levels – blue sky territory. A break below $70 activates
a very different story: the path to the 200-day EMA at $60, and
ultimately toward the October 2025 highs near $55, which together
form a substantial structural support zone. From current levels, that downside
scenario represents a decline of at least 35%.
The 50 EMA
at $82 is the immediate battle line. A daily close back above it on Friday or
early next week would ease the near-term selling pressure and keep the
consolidation symmetrical. A close below it would tilt the near-term bias
toward testing $80 – the mid-channel support where the December 2025 historical
highs also cluster – before any decision on the $70 boundary becomes relevant.
|
Level |
Type |
Notes |
|
$121.62 |
All-time high (Jan 2026) |
Full |
|
$90-$94 |
Upper consolidation band |
Tested |
|
$82 |
Current price (Mar 13) |
50 EMA |
|
$80 |
Mid-channel support |
Dec 2025 highs, 50 EMA cluster |
|
$70 |
Lower consolidation band |
The |
|
$60 |
Bear target 1 |
200-day EMA |
|
$55 |
Bear target 2 |
Oct 2025 highs, -35% from current |
|
$50 |
Extreme bear |
JP Morgan Kolanovic target |
The Bearish Case: Who Is
Calling for Lower Prices
The silver
bull community has dominated the narrative for most of 2025-2026, but a
meaningful minority of analysts and market observers are making the opposite
case – and their arguments deserve honest examination.
Former JP
Morgan Chief Strategist Marko Kolanovic is the most prominent institutional
bear. He predicts silver could crash back to $50 per ounce in
2026, roughly half the January highs, arguing the rally was “driven by
speculation rather than fundamentals” and that 50% drops are
historically normal after such rapid gains.
He is not
wrong about the historical pattern – silver has a long track record of
spectacular advances followed by equally spectacular collapses when the
speculative overhang unwinds.
On X, Arya
Yalmmanian warns of “significant suffering for silver investors over the
next 12 months,” citing long-term sentiment models that show downside
ahead. The note of humility is worth highlighting: he added he hopes his models
are wrong this time.
My long-term models, which are based exclusively on sentiment indicators, show that silver investors will suffer considerably over the next 12 months.
I would like nothing more than for them to be wrong this time.— Ara Yalmanian (@AraYalmanian) March 11, 2026
Yannis Kokkinias takes
a more structural bearish view, pointing to a rising DXY, reduced global
production numbers, and the argument that lower margin requirements going
forward will “enable banks to slam prices via shorts.”
He is the
most cynical: “technicals and fundamentals are obsolete – bankers control
the price.” That framing is common in the silver community and is partly
informed by the decades-long history of position concentration in silver
futures among a handful of large financial institutions.
Patrick technicals or fundamentals are obsolete right now . For silver, everything is bearish. Margins increase or decrease, shortages, solar panels etc don’t matter.
Bangsters can drive the price down whenever they decide to. To any level.— Yannis Kokkinias (@kokkiyann) March 6, 2026
The most
measured bearish scenario comes from Sanju Lakshya who sees silver bottoming
near the $60-$70 support zone and then spending extended time
in a $60-$80 range rather than mounting a sustained recovery.
That view aligns closely with my own chart’s 200-day EMA target of $60 as the
floor of the bear case and is perhaps the most technically grounded of the
bearish views.
#Silver forecast :
I see bottoming near 60-70 Support Zone , and one more attempt to 95-105 before seeing long term consolidation in 60-80 Zone— Super Trader Lakshya #STL (@Sanju_Lakshya) February 2, 2026
Why the Bull Case Is Still
Alive at $82?
The bearish
views above represent a genuine minority amid broader optimism, and it is
important to provide balance. The physical supply deficit that drove silver to
$121 in January has not disappeared. The Silver Institute’s data shows annual
supply shortfalls running at 110-300 million ounces, and COMEX registered
inventories remain severely depleted after the January
delivery squeeze withdrew
33.45 million ounces in a single week.
Bank of
America’s Michael Widmer maintains his $135-$309 target and the structural thesis
behind it – gold-to-silver ratio compression, industrial demand from solar and
AI infrastructure, and Eastern market buying – remains intact. Citi’s $150
three-month forecast issued in late January was premised on “relentless Chinese
buying and dollar weakness.” The Chinese demand story has not changed.
What changed is the dollar, which has partially recovered from its four-year
lows.
The
critical point on my chart is $70. As long as silver holds above
that lower consolidation boundary, the bull and bear cases remain evenly
balanced and the upside to $120 is technically just as valid as the downside to
$55. The break will tell us which story this market is telling.
Silver Price Predictions
2026: From $50 to $309
The
forecast range for silver in 2026 remains one of the widest of any major asset
class, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the physical market can
sustain prices at multiples of historic norms.
|
Source |
Silver Target |
Timeframe |
|
Marko Kolanovic (ex-JPMorgan) |
$50 |
2026, speculative unwind |
|
HSBC |
$68 average |
Full year 2026 |
|
JP Morgan base case |
$81 average |
Full year 2026 |
|
Sanju Lakshya |
$60-$80 range |
Extended consolidation |
|
My bear target |
$55-$60 |
If $70 breaks |
|
MEXC technical model |
$100-$121 |
Mid-2026 if $94 breaks |
|
Bank of America (Widmer) |
$135-$309 |
Full year 2026 |
|
Jochen Staiger |
$111 → $146 → $185 |
12-18 months |
|
My bull target |
$120 |
If $94 breaks with volume |
FAQ, Silver Price Analysis
How low can silver go in
2026?
As shown on
my chart, a break below the $70 lower consolidation boundary opens
the path to the 200-day EMA at $60, and ultimately toward the
October 2025 highs near $55 – representing at least a 35%
decline from Friday’s $82 price.
Why is silver going down
this week?
Silver is
falling for a third consecutive session as the geopolitical risk premium built
up earlier this week unwinds, the dollar firms from multi-year lows, and
traders who chased the January $121 all-time high continue using bounces to
reduce exposure.
What is the silver price
prediction for the rest of 2026?
The range
of credible forecasts spans from JP Morgan’s $81 average and Kolanovic’s $50
crash scenario at the bearish end to Bank of America’s $135-$309 target and
independent analyst Jochen Staiger’s $185 projection at the bull end. My
technical analysis identifies the $70 lower boundary as the pivotal
level – above it, both scenarios remain open. Below it, the bear case
accelerates toward $60 and then $55. A break above $94 opens the path back to
$120 with no technical resistance in between.
Is the silver bull market
over?
Not yet –
but it is on notice. The supply deficit of 110-300 million ounces annually and
the depleted COMEX registered inventories provide genuine structural support.
The 50 EMA at $82 must hold on a closing basis for the near-term technical
picture to remain neutral.
