Iran and the United States have signed a 14‑day ceasefire: risk appetite has returned to the markets

On Tuesday, US stock indices traded without a unified direction. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.18%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.08%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 0.10%. On Wednesday, index futures moved into positive territory, catalyzed by the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which restored investor appetite for risk.

In the corporate sector, performance was mixed: while giants like Nvidia and AMD declined amid broad pessimism, Apple plunged 4% due to production issues with its foldable iPhone. Meanwhile, Broadcom shares jumped 4.5% thanks to a strategic contract with Alphabet, and Intel gained 3% on rumors of cooperation with xAI.

Inflation expectations in the US spiked sharply in March 2026, reaching an annual high of 3.4%. A New York Fed survey recorded alarming dynamics: expectations for gasoline price growth more than doubled, to 9.4%, the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged an impressive rally, breaking above 72,000 dollars and reaching a three‑week high. The catalyst was a dramatic shift in the geopolitical climate: the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran just two hours before Donald Trump’s ultimatum expired restored risk appetite. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary halt to mutual strikes triggered a wave of short liquidations, pushing the price of the leading digital assets to new local highs. After a turbulent period and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year, March data showed stabilization and renewed net inflows. The fact that institutional investors have begun increasing positions again signaled to the market that the capitulation phase among major players has ended.

European stock Indices closed sharply lower on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.67%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.64%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.84%. The main driver of the sell‑off was fear of an imminent energy crisis in the EU’s largest economies: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s ultimatum pushed gas and oil prices sharply higher, leading to rising government‑bond yields and pressuring industrial giants. Shares of Siemens, Schneider Electric, and Airbus lost around 2%, as investors fear supply‑chain paralysis and a surge in production costs.

Palladium (XPD) and platinum (XPT) prices surged sharply on Wednesday. Such a rapid rebound became possible thanks to the sudden easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf: news of the two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a collapse in oil prices below 100 dollars per barrel. This immediately lowered inflation expectations and revived hopes for a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, leading to falling bond yields and a weaker dollar – ideal conditions for commodity price growth.

Wednesday was marked by a historic collapse in oil prices: WTI futures plunged more than 15%, breaking below 95 dollars per barrel. The massive sell‑off was a direct reaction to the abrupt de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Donald Trump’s decision to transform his hardline ultimatum into a “bilateral ceasefire” for 14 days, and his acknowledgment that Iran’s 10‑point proposal is a “real basis for negotiations”, instantly removed the enormous geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated in recent weeks. A key factor for global energy security was Tehran’s commitment to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For the global economy, this drop in oil prices below 95 dollars is a powerful deflationary stimulus. If the two‑week window allows the parties to finalize a deal, fears of global recession and uncontrolled fuel inflation may give way to a cycle of business activity recovery. However, investors remain cautious, recognizing that Iran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with its armed forces could become a new tool of subtle pressure in upcoming negotiations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.72% during the trading session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.83%. Asian stock markets on Wednesday posted explosive gains, celebrating the unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The leaders of the rally were the Japanese and South Korean Indices, which surged more than 5%, reflecting enormous investor relief after the world came close to a full‑scale energy war. Despite the euphoria, traders are closely examining the terms of the agreement. Tehran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with Iran’s armed forces indicates that control over the key maritime artery remains a leverage tool in Iran’s hands. Nevertheless, stock exchanges in Australia, China, and Hong Kong supported the upward trend, as the risk of immediate disruption to global supply chains temporarily faded.

The New Zealand dollar rose to 0.58 USD, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, after the Reserve Bank, as expected, left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%. The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is also supported by the de‑escalation between Washington and Tehran. Iran’s agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the 14‑day ceasefire reduced the risk premium that had been weighing on commodity currencies. For New Zealand, whose economy is highly dependent on logistics costs and energy imports, the resumption of shipping reduces the threat of stagflation.