January 2025 in Figures – Currency Thoughts
January 2025 in Figures
February 1, 2025
Net movements in the dollar last month were minimal despite a change in the U.S. federal government that could have profound effects on the economies of other countries and how such interact with America. Ten-year sovereign debt yields also changed to a lesser extent than in December. European stock markets rallied far more sharply than share prices in the United States, and the Japanese Nikkei actually slipped marginally. The prices of Bitcoin and gold both experienced share gains during January. Oil prices actually firmed in spite of U.S. plans to dramatically increase its production of fossil fuels.
Among the three central banks featured in the table below, January policy reviews were not scheduled in the U.K. or Switzerland, the Fed paused its easing cycle seemingly for several months if not longer. The European Central Bank’s deposit rate was lowered for the fifth time since June, while the Bank of Japan’s policy rate was doubled to 0.50%. Other central bank interest rate changes during January included hikes of 200 basis points in Moldova and 100 bps in Ukraine and Brazil and reductions of 300 basis points in Argentina, 250 bps in Turkey, 100 bps in Pakistan, and 25 basis points in South Africa, Sweden and Canada.
| 10-Yr Yield | 12/31/24 | 1/31/25 | Change in Jan |
| U.S. | 4.57% | 4.54% | -3 Basis Points |
| Germany | 2.36% | 2.46% | +10 |
| Japan | 1.07% | 1.23% | +16 |
| U.K. | 4.56% | 4.54% | -2 |
| Canada | 3.22% | 3.06% | -16 |
| Switzerland | 0.21% | 0.33% | +12 |
| CB Policy Rate | 12/31/24 | 1/31/25 | January Chg |
| Fed funds target | 4.25-4.50% | 4.25-4.50% | 0 basis pts |
| ECB deposit rate | 3.00% | 2.75% | -25 |
| BOJ policy rate | 0.25% | 0.50% | +25 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 4.75% | 4.75% | 0 |
| Swiss Policy Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0 |
| FX | 12/31/24 | 1/31/25 | Jan Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.0356 | 1.0374 | -0.2% |
| USD/JPY | 157.26 | 155.10 | -1.4% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9073 | 0.9107 | +0.4% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2508 | 1.2400 | +0.9% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6188 | 0.6214 | -0.4% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5594 | 0.5641 | -0.8% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4381 | 1.4537 | +1.1% |
| USD/CNY | 7.2993 | 7.1871 | -1.5% |
| Equities | 12/31/24 | 1/31/25 | Change in Jan |
| S&P 500 | 5882 | 6041 | +2.7% |
| Nasdaq | 19311 | 19627 | +1.6% |
| Djia | 42544 | 44545 | +4.7% |
| Dax | 18909 | 21732 | +14.9% |
| Nikkei | 39895 | 39572 | -0.8% |
| Ftse | 8173 | 8674 | +6.1% |
| Canada TSE | 24728 | 25533 | +3.3% |
| Swiss SMI | 11601 | 12597 | +8.6% |
| Commodities | 12/31/24 | 1/31/25 | January Chg |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 71.72 | 72.53 | +1.1% |
| Gold, $ per ounce
Bitcoin, $ |
2,641
93,468 |
2,835
102,089 |
+7.3%
+9.2%% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2024. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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