Lull in Data Flow Slows Pulse of Market Activity – Currency Thoughts
Lull in Data Flow Slows Pulse of Market Activity
December 4, 2025
Thursday has been a comparatively inconsequential trading session. The dollar is narrowly mixed, dropping 0.3% against sterling but ticking 0.1% higher relative to the euro and yen. U.S. equities are holding but not extending yesterday’s rise. Japan’s Nikkei-225 played catchup, jumping 2.3%, and the Hang Seng closed 0.7% stronger. Stock markets in Germany, Spain and France 0.7-0.9% firmer, while those in the U.K. and Italy have made smaller gains. Bitcoin (-0.9%) and gold prices (-0.3%) are lower, while WTI oil has risen half a percent.
The British construction purchasing managers index plunged 4.7 index points more deeply into contractionary territory, printing at a 65-month low of 39.4, a level not seen since the early days of the Covid pandemic.
Euroland’s construction PMI recovered 1.4 points but at 45.4 remained significantly below the 50 level that divides improvement from deterioration. The German and French readings rose to a 2- and 3-month high of 45.2 and 45.6, while Italy’s construction index posted its fourth sub-50 score in five months with a 3-month low of 48.2.
In contrast, the private Lebanese purchasing managers index exceeded 50 for a fourth straight monthly reading with a 2-month high of 51.3.
There was mixed U.S. labor market news today. The challenger gauge of 71,326 layoffs last month was the largest November total in three years. But new jobless insurance claims last week dropped 27k last week to 191k, their fewest weekly total in 26 months.
The volume of retail sales in the euro area in October was unchanged from September’s total, extending a flat-lined pattern for a fourth straight month. October sales were only 0.1% above the monthly average in the third quarter.
Brazilian real GDP growth slowed to just 0.1% last quarter, trimming year-on-year growth to a 13-quarter low of 1.8% from 2.4% in 2Q and 4.0% in the final quarter of 2024.
Irish GDP contracted 0.3% in the third quarter, reversing the second quarter’s result, but year-on-year growth hung onto double-digit territory at 10.8%.
Austrian GDP growth last quarter has been revised appreciably higher from 0.1% reported earlier to 0.4%. Compared to a year earlier, GDP climbed 0.9%, more than double the year-on-year reading of 0.4% in the second quarter.
Swedish CPI inflation fell to 0.3% last month, just a third of the 0.9% reading in October and close to the 2025 low of 0.2% in May.
Czech consumer price inflation also slowed in November, falling to a 7-month low of 2.1%.
Seasonally adjusted 3.0% unemployment in Switzerland last month matched the September and October results.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: Brazilian GDP, Euroland and British construction purchasing manager indices, Euroland retail sales, Irish and Austrian GDP
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