Manufacturing? Tech? Energy? Here’s the Industry Set to Dominate After New Tariffs
President Trump’s proposed tariffs—ranging from broad taxes on Chinese imports to targeted metal tariffs—could significantly impact multiple industries. Tariffs work like a tax on foreign goods, making them more expensive and giving U.S. products a temporary competitive edge. While this can help certain U.S. industries grow, it often leads to higher costs for businesses that rely on imported materials and can trigger retaliation from other countries, hurting American exporters. Below, we break down how key sectors—manufacturing, energy, technology, agriculture, and retail—may be affected.
Manufacturing and Materials
Some industries, like steel and aluminum production, benefit directly from tariffs. When Trump announced metal tariffs, U.S. steelmakers’ stocks soared—Cleveland-Cliffs jumped 18%, Nucor rose ~6%, and Steel Dynamics gained ~5%. This mirrored 2018, when similar tariffs boosted earnings for steel companies and even encouraged foreign firms like ArcelorMittal and Hyundai Steel to set up U.S. factories to avoid the tariffs.
However, not all manufacturers win. Companies that rely on imported materials—like automakers and heavy equipment manufacturers—face higher costs. For example, General Motors estimated a $1 billion increase in expenses due to tariffs, while Ford projected a $750 million rise. In 2002, similar steel tariffs helped mills, but 10 times as many jobs were lost in steel-using industries due to rising costs. In short, steel and aluminum producers benefit, but industries that need these materials, such as carmakers and aerospace firms, struggle with higher prices.
Energy Sector
The energy industry sees limited benefits from tariffs and faces more challenges. Unlike manufactured goods, oil and gas are global commodities, and Trump’s tariffs mainly target industrial products. While no broad tariff exists on crude oil, taxing Canadian oil (which supplies over 20% of U.S. refineries) would drive up fuel prices.
Steel tariffs also hurt energy companies, as they need specialty steel for pipelines and drilling equipment. A 25% tariff increases costs for building pipelines and LNG terminals, potentially slowing investment. While U.S. solar panel manufacturers benefited from Trump’s 30% tariffs on imports in 2018, the overall solar industry suffered—over $2.5 billion in projects were canceled due to higher costs. In summary, traditional oil and gas firms face higher expenses, while the renewable sector saw mixed results—some manufacturers gained, but many installers and developers struggled.
Technology Sector
The tech industry, which relies heavily on global supply chains, was among the hardest hit. Many consumer electronics and IT products are assembled in China, meaning tariffs raised costs rather than boosting domestic production.
Companies like Apple felt the impact—slowing iPhone sales in China due to trade tensions led Apple to cut its revenue forecast in 2019. Chipmakers like Intel also saw lower demand in China. Some tech firms tried to shift production to Vietnam or Mexico to avoid tariffs, but this process is expensive and slow. The only potential winners were U.S. networkIn the context of cryptocurrency, a network refers to the interconnected system of computers, nodes, and software that work together to support and maintain the functioning of a sp… equipment companies that compete with Chinese firms like Huawei. Overall, however, tariffs were a major burden on the tech sector, leading to higher costs and lower sales.
Agriculture
Unlike manufacturing, agriculture was a major loser in the trade war. Trump didn’t impose many tariffs on farm goods, but countries like China retaliated by placing heavy tariffs on American exports like soybeans, pork, and corn. As a result, U.S. farmers lost key markets—China, once the top buyer of U.S. soybeans, turned to Brazil instead.
Major agribusinesses suffered: Archer Daniels Midland saw a 30% profit drop due to trade disruptions, and equipment makers like John Deere faced higher steel costs for farm machinery. While some U.S. dairy and meat producers gained from tariffs on foreign imports, the overall impact on agriculture was negative. The Trump administration had to provide $28 billion in aid to offset farmers’ losses, highlighting how tariffs hurt the sector more than they helped.
Consumer Goods and Retail
Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports affected many everyday products—electronics, clothing, appliances, and furniture—raising costs for retailers and consumers. While some U.S. manufacturers gained, such as Whirlpool, which benefited from tariffs on imported washing machines, most retailers faced higher expenses.
Big-box stores like Walmart and Target warned of rising prices. Walmart’s stock fell in anticipation of increased import costs, and a consumer survey showed 43% of Americans noticed higher prices due to tariffs. Retailers tried to offset costs by switching suppliers or absorbing some losses, but in the end, tariffs acted like a tax on consumers, increasing inflationInflation refers to the rate at which the overall price levels of goods and services increase, gradually reducing purchasing power over time. It is commonly measured using indices … and potentially slowing spending.
Domestic Production versus Import Reliance
Trump’s tariffs aimed to boost U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports. In the short term, they helped certain industries—steel production increased, some factories reopened, and companies moved operations to the U.S. to avoid tariffs. Tariffs also gave the U.S. leverage in trade negotiations, like the USMCA deal with Canada and Mexico.
However, tariffs also created challenges. Higher costs hurt manufacturers that rely on imports, and retaliation from other countries cut off export markets for U.S. companies. Past trade policies show that while some jobs are saved, others are lost—often at a higher cost. In the stock market, initial reactions to tariffs often favored steel and aluminum stocks, but broader indexes fell due to concerns over higher costs and slower growth.
Looking Ahead
Trump’s tariffs are a double-edged sword. Some industries—like steel, aluminum, and a few U.S. manufacturers—benefit by reducing foreign competition and encouraging domestic production. But many others—energy companies, automakers, tech firms, farmers, and retailers—struggle with higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and lost export markets.
Whether tariffs ultimately help the U.S. economy depends on whether the gains in domestic production outweigh the broader losses. History suggests that while tariffs can protect certain industries, they often lead to higher costs, retaliation, and economic inefficiencies. Investors and policymakers will be watching closely to see if Trump’s trade policies deliver a net benefit—or if they end up doing more harm than good.
Lance Jepsen is the senior personal finance writer for Guerilla Stock Trading who has spent more than 25 years covering the stock market and economics. In addition, Lance has worked as a private stock analyst for a number of high worth individuals.
