March and First Quarter 2026 in Figures – Currency Thoughts
March and First Quarter 2026 in Figures
March 31, 2026
March was dominated by wild daily and intra-daily swings in financial vital signs as sentiment about the outcome and duration of the Middle Eastern war swung with each news flash, and investors tried to figure out the implications for the path of energy prices, general inflation, and the shape of Middle East oil facilities when the conflict eventually ends. It didn’t help either that one of the biggest swings occurred on the final day of March, and these distorted net changes for the month.
None of the central banks in the table below changed policy interest rates during March. Ten-year sovereign debt yield increased on speculation that higher inflation may lead to monetary tightening. Bitcoin swung all over the place but fell only around 6% on balance. Lower oil prices enabled reported total inflation to stay lower than would have otherwise been the case. Equities got hammered both in March and the first quarter. Precious metals rose in price during the whole quarter, but gains were slimmed in March. Crypto in March partly reversed deep losses in the first two months of 2026.
Oil prices soared like it was 1974, 1979 or late 1990.
| 10-Yr Yield | 3/31/26 | Chg in March | 1Q26 Change |
| U.S. | 4.32% | +37 basis points | +13 basis points |
| Germany | 3.00% | +36 | +15 |
| Japan | 2.34% | +10 | +29 |
| U.K. | 4.91% | +68 | +44 |
| Canada | 3.47% | +34 | +4 |
| Switzerland | 0.31% | +15 | +8 |
| CB Policy Rate | 3/31/26 | Chg in March | 1Q26 Change |
| Fed funds target | 3.50/3.75% | 0 basis points | 0 basis pts |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.00% | 0 | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | +0.75% | 0 | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 3.75% | 0 | 0 |
| Swiss Policy Rate | 0.0% | 0 | 0 |
| FX | 3/31/26 | Mar Chg in $ | 1Q26 Change |
| EUR/USD | 1.1562 | +2.2% | +1.6% |
| USD/JPY | 158.63 | +1.6% | +1.2% |
| USD/CHF | 0.7993 | +4.0% | +0.8% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3239 | +1.8% | +1.7% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6900 | +3.1% | -3.3% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5746 | +3.5% | +0.1% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3911 | +1.9% | +1.4% |
| USD/CNY | 6.9900 | +0.6% | +1.4% |
| Equities | 3/31/26 | Chg in March | 1Q26 Change |
| S&P 500 | 6845 | +0.4% | -4.6% |
| Nasdaq | 21591 | -3.9% | -7.1% |
| Djia | 46342 | -5.4% | -3.6% |
| Dax | 22680 | -10.3% | -7.4% |
| Nikkei | 51064 | -13.2% | +1.4% |
| Ftse | 10176 | -6.8% | +2.5% |
| Canada TSE | 32736 | -4.7% | +3.2% |
| Swiss SMI | 12777 | -8.8% | -3.7% |
| Commodities | 3/31/26 | Chg in March | 1Q26 Change |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 101.8 | +51.9% | +77.4% |
| Gold, $ per ounce
Bitcoin, $ |
4715
68077 |
-10.2%
+3.7% |
+8.6%
-21.2% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2026. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: financial market movements in March and 1Q 2026
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