Market Snapshot February 4th 2026 – The Concept Trading

Non-farm maybe not showed up today.

Data:

1) Global Rates / Yields — Key Benchmarks

United States: 2Y ~3.61–3.63% | 10Y ~4.24–4.27% | 30Y ~4.88–4.92%, Treasury yields held near recent highs as markets positioned ahead of S. labor-market data and ISM services later this week.
United Kingdom: 10Y Gilt ~4.50–4.54%, stable as investors awaited BoE guidance amid persistent services inflation.
Germany: 10Y Bund ~2.92–2.95%, edging higher in sympathy with global yields.
France: 10Y OAT ~3.57–3.60%, little changed.
Italy: 10Y BTP ~3.52–3.55%, spreads contained.
Japan: 10Y JGB ~2.31–2.34%, near multi-decade highs, continuing to anchor global rate volatility.
Australia: 10Y ACGB ~4.85–4.90%, elevated on inflation persistence and a hawkish RBA bias.
Canada: 10Y GoC ~3.46–3.49%, tracking U.S. Treasuries.
China: 10Y CGB ~1.84–1.86%, stable under accommodative policy stance.

2) Equity Index Moves

United States

S&P 500 (US500): ~6,975–6,980 (+0.4–0.6%)
Nasdaq Composite: ~23,590–23,600 (+0.5–0.7%)
Dow Jones: ~49,400–49,450 (+1.0–1.2%)
S. equities rebounded on bargain hunting, small-cap strength, and easing immediate policy anxiety.

Europe

Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50): ~5,985–6,000 (+0.4–0.6%)
DAX (GER40): ~25,000–25,050 (+0.4–0.6%)
CAC 40: ~8,180–8,220 (+0.5–0.7%)
Europe extended gains, led by financials and defensives.

Asia

Nikkei 225: ~52,700–53,000 (–0.2% to –0.4%), pressured by yen firmness and elevated JGB yields.
Broader Asia traded mixed, with selective EM outperformance.

3) Prior‑Day Macro / “Red News”

United States: ISM manufacturing (Jan) remained in contraction territory but showed signs of stabilization, supporting a soft-landing narrative.
United States: Construction spending (Dec) surprised modestly to the upside, highlighting resilience in non-residential investment.
Europe: No Tier-1 releases; markets remained focused on inflation dynamics and earnings.
Asia: Limited top-tier data; attention remained on FX and rate developments.

4) High‑Impact Market Headlines

Month-start rebound:S. equities extended gains at the start of February after January volatility, supported by rotation into cyclicals and small caps.
Rates still the main constraint: Elevated U.S. and Japanese yields continued to cap equity multiple expansion globally.
Fed leadership uncertainty lingers: Markets continued to assess implications of the S. Fed chair nomination, keeping rates and tech valuations sensitive.
Gold stabilised after selloff: Precious metals found support following last week’s sharp correction from record highs.
Oil range-bound: Crude prices consolidated as geopolitical risk offset softer demand expectations.
FX dynamics: The yen remained firm, weighing on Japanese exporters; the USD traded in a narrow range.
Looking ahead: Focus shifts to S. payrolls, ISM services, and central-bank speakers as key near-term catalysts.

Companies.

+) Alphabet traded softer as investors focused on near-term ad growth moderation, despite management reiterating long-term upside from AI-enhanced Search and Cloud workloads.

+) Amazon was mixed after earnings digestion, with the market balancing AWS margin normalization against improving retail efficiency and cost discipline.

+) Microsoft held firm relative to peers, supported by confidence in enterprise demand visibility and AI monetization across Azure and Copilot.

+) Nvidia declined as profit-taking continued in AI leaders, reflecting valuation sensitivity rather than changes in demand fundamentals.

+) Advanced Micro Devices underperformed in sympathy with the broader semiconductor pullback, as investors reassessed competitive dynamics in AI accelerators.

+) Meta Platforms eased modestly, with attention on AI capex intensity versus advertising margin sustainability.

+) Tesla remained volatile, as concerns persisted around global pricing pressure, margins, and intensifying EV competition.

+) Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman outperformed, supported by defense budget visibility and geopolitical risk premia.

+) Pfizer traded narrowly as investors focused on cost controls and pipeline execution amid declining legacy revenues.

+) UnitedHealth and Humana stayed pressured, with Medicare reimbursement uncertainty continuing to weigh on managed-care sentiment.

+) Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola attracted defensive inflows as investors rotated toward stable cash-flow names.

+) Caterpillar was mixed following earnings, reinforcing a narrative of normalizing construction and mining demand.

+) Netflix consolidated recent gains, with focus on ad-tier growth versus content spend discipline.

** Winners/ Losers: (in 28Jan)

Company	Ticker	Daily Move	Primary Driver
Palantir Technologies	PLTR	+6.8%	Strong earnings & forecast
PepsiCo	PEP	+4.9%	Better‑than‑expected results
Walmart	WMT	+3.0%	Market‑cap milestone close to $1T
Costco	COST	+1.0%	Value rotation support
Target	TGT	+1.6%	Relative value demand

Company	Ticker	Daily Move	Primary Driver
PayPal	PYPL	-20%	Weak earnings & leadership change
ServiceNow	NOW	-7%	Competitive pressure in software
Nvidia	NVDA	-2.8%	Sector sell‑off
Microsoft	MSFT	-2.9%	Tech repricing drag
Amazon	AMZN	-1.7%	Growth rotation

General

Currency Overview: FX markets traded in a controlled, low-volatility regime as investors continued to prioritize relative policy paths over directional risk. Positioning remained disciplined, reflecting confidence in gradual disinflation while growth visibility stayed uneven across regions, reinforcing consolidation rather than trend formation.

EUR: The euro held broadly steady, supported by stable rate differentials but capped by fragile Eurozone activity and soft credit transmission. With ECB expectations largely unchanged, EUR price action remained driven by spreads and positioning rather than an improvement in the growth outlook.

GBP: Sterling traded defensively as lingering UK growth constraints and fiscal sensitivity limited upside. Global yield dynamics provided only partial support, keeping GBP reactive to external rates rather than domestic catalysts.

USD: The U.S. dollar was little changed, balancing expectations for gradual easing with persistent demand for liquidity and institutional credibility. Relative U.S. growth resilience continued to underpin the dollar, preventing a deeper pullback despite muted yield momentum.

JPY: The yen remained under pressure as carry dynamics dominated in a low-volatility environment. Absent fresh domestic policy signals, JPY continued to act as the adjustment valve for global rate differentials rather than a safe-haven proxy.

Precious Metals (Gold & Silver): Gold and silver consolidated as stabilizing real yields reduced momentum while residual hedging demand provided a floor. The lack of acute geopolitical escalation limited additional safe-haven inflows.

Energy (Brent & WTI): Oil prices traded cautiously, balancing supply discipline and geopolitical optionality against persistent uncertainty over global demand. Price action suggested limited inflationary pressure from energy at current levels.

Equity Flow: Equity flows remained selective, favoring large-cap quality, defensives, and earnings visibility over broad beta exposure. The pattern reflected late-cycle discipline rather than confidence in a strong growth re-acceleration.

Geopolitics: Strategic tensions—including major power competition and ongoing regional conflicts—remained a structural constraint on sentiment without triggering near-term volatility or abrupt repricing.

Corporate Focus: Investor attention centered on guidance credibility, margin resilience, and cost discipline as earnings updates continued. Companies offering predictable cash flows and balance-sheet strength maintained valuation support.

Systemic View: Across asset classes, signals pointed to stabilization and differentiation rather than a regime shift. Financial conditions remained supportive, but investors stayed cautious, awaiting clearer confirmation from macro data and corporate earnings before adjusting exposure materially.

Upcoming News

Markets head into Wednesday with a labour- and services-focused setup, as investors refine positioning ahead of the latter half of the week’s U.S. data flow. Overall market sense is cautiously constructive but tactically defensive, with participants looking for confirmation that labour-market cooling and services-sector moderation remain consistent with a soft-landing narrative. FX and rates are expected to react cleanly to data surprises as liquidity is fully normalized, while equities remain selective and sensitive to real-rate moves.

In the United States, attention centers on ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI. ADP will be treated as a directional cross-check ahead of Friday’s payrolls rather than a precise predictor, while ISM Services is critical for assessing demand resilience and services inflation—key inputs for the Fed’s reaction function. A softer ADP paired with a cooling ISM would likely weigh on the USD and support front-end Treasuries; resilience in services could stabilize yields and cap USD downside.

Across Europe, the calendar is lighter, leaving EUR trading primarily off U.S. yield differentials and risk sentiment rather than domestic catalysts. In the Asia–Pacific region, China’s services activity data provides incremental color on post-Lunar New Year momentum, with implications for CNH and regional risk assets. Corporate catalysts remain limited, keeping macro confirmation and positioning flows as the dominant drivers.

Time (GMT+7)	Category	Country / Region	Event	Market Relevance
08:45	🔴 Red News	China	Caixin Services PMI (Jan)	Services momentum; CNH & Asia risk sentiment
16:55	🔴 Red News	Germany	Services PMI (Final)	Confirms Eurozone demand trends
17:00	🔴 Red News	Eurozone	Services PMI (Final)	ECB growth narrative validation
17:30	🔴 Red News	United Kingdom	Services PMI (Final)	GBP and gilt curve sensitivity
20:15	🔴 Red News	United States	ADP Employment Change	Labour demand cross-check ahead of NFP
22:00	🔴 Red News	United States	ISM Services PMI	Demand & services inflation signal; USD and yields
All day	🔶 Stress / Headlines	Global	Pre-NFP positioning / policy headlines	Can amplify FX and rates moves

Snapshot

FX

DXY edged lower to 38 (-0.23%), extending the corrective pullback after the recent rebound.
EUR/USD slipped to 1815 (-0.02%), consolidating after the sharp early-week rally.
GBP/USD was little changed at 3694 (-0.01%), holding near recent highs.
USD/JPY ticked up to 81 (+0.07%), stabilizing after prior yen strength.
USD/CHF rose modestly to 7758 (+0.06%), tracking the dollar’s mixed tone.
USD/CAD edged lower to 3642 (-0.01%), with oil prices under pressure.
AUD/USD declined to 7017 (-0.07%), while NZD/USD fell to 0.6039 (-0.12%), underperforming among G10 FX.

Crypto

Bitcoin fell to $75,864 (-3.6%), extending downside momentum.
Ethereum dropped to $2,243 (-4.3%), underperforming Bitcoin.
Solana slid to $98.31 (-5.9%), remaining under heavy pressure.
Optimism (OP) plunged to $0.214 (-7.0%), continuing sharp risk-off moves in altcoins.

Commodities

Gold eased to $4,943/oz (-0.06%), consolidating after the strong rebound earlier in the week.
Silver slipped to $84.28/oz (-0.92%), giving back part of its recent gains.
Copper fell to $6.11/lb (-0.41%), reflecting softer risk sentiment.

Equities / Indices

S&P 500 edged down to 6,916 (-0.03%), trading sideways after the recent recovery.
Euro Stoxx 50 declined to 5,977 (-0.08%), mirroring cautious risk tone.
Dow Jones edged higher to 49,298 (+0.02%), supported by selective buying.
Nasdaq 100 dropped to 25,339 (-1.55%), underperforming as tech stocks retreated.
CAC 40 eased to 8,180 (-0.02%), largely flat in early trade.
VIX ticked up to 97 (+0.53%), signaling a mild pickup in near-term volatility.

P/s: Weekly Snapshot will be incoming. Stay tuned.

This report is provided to The Concept Trading from Van Hung Nguyen

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