Second Quarter Euroland GDP Growth and Some Central Bank Rate Announcements – Currency Thoughts

News of Regional Bank Credit Strains Inject Fresh Fears into the Marketplace – Currency Thoughts


News of Regional Bank Credit Strains Inject Fresh Fears into the Marketplace

October 17, 2025

The report of distressed loans by Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp sent their share prices crashing 13.1% and 10.8% today and created an unsettling deja vu from 18 years ago. According to AI Overview,

On August 8, 2007, the global financial crisis intensified as banks experienced liquidity problems stemming from the collapse of the US subprime mortgage market. The crisis became public when French bank BNP Paribas froze over $2 billion in funds tied to US subprime mortgages, an event widely seen as a major escalation point. This action signaled that even the most liquid and secure-seeming assets were unstable, leading to a general freeze in the interbank lending market.

And so began the scariest global financial crisis since the Great Depression….

Financial market highlights so far today include

  • Stock market declines of 2.5% in Hong Kong, 2.6% in Indonesia, 2.0% in China, and 1.4% in Japan.
  • The equity indices of Germany, Italy and Great Britain so far show losses of 1.7%, 1.5% and 1.0%.
  • U.S. stock futures have rebounded notably from overnight lows but still show losses led by a 0.9% Nasdaq drop.
  • The Turkish lira touched a record low of 41.9511 per U.S. dollar.
  • Key dollar relationships such as with the euro, yen, loonie and sterling have not moved much.
  • The price of gold pushed farther into record high territory near $4,380 per troy ounce.
  • Bitcoin tumbled to a 3-month low of $103,737 at one point, compared to a high of $126,198 on October 6th.
  • Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed three bpsis points in the U.K., two bps in the United States, France, Italy and Spain and a basis point in Germany but fell by 2 bps in Japan where that economies central bank governor lent support to the view that the BOJ interest rate will likely be raised if economic developments evolve as expected.
  • WTI oil remains below $58 per barrel but close to Thursday’s closing level.

President Trump claims he will likely be holding a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Putin sometime next week in Budapest.

Consumer price inflation in the euro area was confirmed at the preliminary September estimate of 2.2%, which constitutes a 5-month high. Core inflation, excluding food and energy got revised 0.1 percentage point higher to 2.4%, also a 5-month high. The on-year change in the energy component (-0.4%) was the smallest in 7 months. The sticky service sector component edged up to 3.2%. Among the four largest economies in the euro bloc, German inflation matched the group’s 2.4% reading. In Spain, which leads the foursome in economic growth, inflation was 3.0% last month, while both France (1.1%) and Italy (1.8%) had lower readings than the 2.4% mean.

Malaysian GDP posted on-year growth of 5.2% last quarter, above 4.4% in the first half of 2025 but similar to the 5.1% average in all of 2024.

Portuguese producer prices in September fell 0.3% on month and 3.7% on year, marking the ninth consecutive sub-zero percentage change. The producer price inflation lowpoint of -4.3% was touched in November 2023, which the 2022 high of 22.4% occured in June.

Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

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