OECD Economic Outlook and November CPI Figures from November Top Today’s Data Calendar

December 2, 2025

In overnight financial markets this Tuesday, the dollar climbed 0.3% against the Japanese yen but fell 0.3% versus the Australian dollar and by 0.2% vis-a-vis the Korean won. The greenback also edged 0.1% lower relative to the euro, loonie, peso, and kiwi and remained steady against the Swiss franc and Turkish lira.

Ten-year sovereign debt yields are two basis points higher in the United States and France, a single basis point firmer in Germany and Great Britain and unchanged in Italy, Spain and Japan.

Major U.S. stock market indices in the first hour or so had recouped 0.5-0.9%. Stock market gains were recorded of 0.8% in Indonesia and 0.7% in South Korea. Markets in China and India dropped 0.6% and 0.4%, while the Japanese Nikkei held steady after losing 1.7% on Monday.

After diving sharply on Monday, the price of Bitcoin has so far rebounded 3.2% today. Oil and gold prices are 0.9% and 0.4% lower, in contrast.

An eagerly awaited speech at Stanford by Fed Chairman Powell did not include comments about current economic conditions or upcoming monetary policy. President Trump will be revealing his choice of Powell successor later this month.

Forecasts in the latest OECD Economic Outlook paint a sobering picture for GDP growth in the coming two years. The U.S. expansion slows to a pace averaging around 1.8%, and Chinese growth drops a further step to slightly less than 4.5%. Average 2026-27 growth in the euro area of 1.3% remains at this year’s meager rate, while growth in the U.K. and Japan falters further to about 1.25% and 0.9%, respectively.

Consumer prices in the euro area during November fell 0.3%, their largest monthly decline in ten months but merely matching the monthly change in November 2024. The bloc’s collective CPI posted a 2.2% 12-month rate of rise, a rounded 0.1 percentage point higher than in October. Core inflation (excluding food & energy) printed at 2.4% for the fifth time in six months. Food costs held at October’s 7-month low. Energy deflation of -0.5% was less pronounced than in the prior month, but service sector price inflation edged up to a 7-month high of 3.5% from 3.4% in October and August’s 3.1%. On-year harmonized inflation in the big-four economies ranged from 0.8% in France to 1.1% in Italy, 2.6% in Germany and 3.1% in Spain. The data are going to persuade ECB officials to jump back on the rate cutting bandwagon.

Euroland’s unemployment rate printed at 6.4% in October, same as in the third quarter. But in Spain, the number of jobless workers fell by the most in a half year.

British shop prices in November recorded their smallest year-on-year rise in five months, just 0.6%. Also from the U.K. came news of a 17-month low year-on-year rise in the Nationwide house price index (1.8% versus 4.7% last December and 14.3% back in March of 2022).

A 0.2% monthly dip in Italian producer prices in October resulted in a -0.5% 12-month rate of change, its most deflationary state in 11 months.

Japanese consumer confidence, which hasn’t printed as high as 40 since the first half of 2019, rose to a 19-month high of 37.5 in November.

A 2.1% year-on-year increase in South African real GDP recorded in the third quarter was the most in three years. In Hungary, GDP stagnated last quarter and was a mere 0.6% above its year-earlier level, still somewhat better than the calendar year growth of -0.9% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024. U.S. immigration policy has tightened almost across the board this year, with the notable exception of special preference given to whites from South Africa, and Hungary is another foreign country whose governance is much admired by the Trump Administration.

Romania’s manufacturing purchasing managers index slipped further below the 50.0 neutral level to a 7-month low of 47.2, while Singapore’s PMI reading rose 0.2 points to a 3-month high of 50.2.

Industrial production in Brazil stayed weak in October, rising 0.1% versus September but dropping 0.5% year-on-year.

Tags: Euroland CPI inflation and unemployment, OECD updated growth forecasts

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on Tuesday, December 2nd, 2025 at 9:33 am and is filed under New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update.
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