Platinum Bets on Tariffs. Forecast as of 09.01.2026 | LiteFinance
According to the WPIC, the US’s reluctance to impose tariffs on platinum represents the biggest risk to the bullish outlook for the white metal. Platinum posted a record rally in 2025, but the situation could change in 2026. Let’s discuss it and make a trading plan for XPT/USD.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Platinum showed a record rally in 2025.
- In December, the metal’s price surged by nearly one third.
- The absence of tariffs is the main risk for XPT/USD.
- A drop in platinum prices below $2,200 would be a signal to sell.
Monthly Fundamental Forecast for Platinum
Platinum outperformed gold but lagged behind silver. In 2025, the white metal delivered record gains. The rally was driven by supply disruptions, the European Union’s policy shift — effectively lifting the ban on internal combustion engines after 2035 — and strong speculative and investment demand for precious metals. Concerns over the potential introduction of US tariffs also played a role. What’s in store for the XPTUSD in 2026?
Precious Metals Performance
Source: Bloomberg.
Platinum’s record high and its 33% rally in December — the strongest monthly performance since 1986 — were no coincidence. Toward year-end, the European Union yielded to pressure from automakers and reversed its ban on internal combustion engines after 2035. This marked the most significant retreat from Brussels’ green agenda to date and reopened the door for continued use of platinum-group metals in the automotive industry, which accounts for around 80% of total platinum demand.
Adding fuel to the XPT/USD rally was China’s decision to launch trading in platinum-group metals futures in Guangzhou to hedge price risks. In practice, this attracted large speculative flows and forced the exchange to raise margin requirements to reduce volatility.
Platinum Annual Performance
Source: Reuters.
The US-based CME took similar steps across precious metals, triggering a temporary pullback. However, investor interest in this asset class remained strong. Heightened geopolitical tensions at the start of the year boosted gold and silver prices, while platinum gained fresh tailwinds, allowing it to hold onto previously achieved levels.
Investors are closely watching the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of universal tariffs. If they are overturned, the White House may be forced to implement Plan B — tariffs on specific imported goods. As a mineral classified as critical, platinum could fall within this scope.
Concerns over potential tariffs on platinum supplies have already driven bullion flows into the United States. Platinum inventories on US exchanges now exceed 600,000 ounces. At the same time, the WPIC warns that the absence of tariffs would pose the greatest risk to the bullish trend in XPT/USD.
MKS PAMP expects platinum prices to fall to $2,000 per ounce. TD Securities and Commerzbank forecast an average price of $1,800 in the second half of 2026, while BMO Capital Markets sees prices dropping to $1,375. The main drivers behind these projections include the absence of tariffs, the return of platinum inventories from the US, and a growing market surplus.
Monthly Trading Plan for XPTUSD
In my view, XPT/USD prices could rise if the Supreme Court declares the White House’s universal tariffs unlawful. However, Washington’s reluctance to impose import duties on the white metal could bring bullish expectations back down to earth. In this scenario, platinum may be worth selling if prices fall below $2,200 per ounce.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XPTUSD in real time mode
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