Quiet Monday So Far Aside from Large Gains in Tesla and Crypto – Currency Thoughts
Quiet Monday So Far Aside from Large Gains in Tesla and Crypto
November 18, 2024
The weighted DXY dollar index has ticked 0.1% higher due to a 0.7% rise against the yen but mitigated by marginal dips against the euro, Swissy, and sterling. DOW and SPX futures are little changed, while a 3% advance in Tesla and a 1% rise in Bitcoin reflect President-Elect Trump’s transactional approach to governance.
Most European stock markets are pretty steady this Monday, a 1.3% drop in the Milan market being a notable exception. Following America’s difficult Friday session, Asian stock markets closed this Monday down 1.1% in Japan, 0.9% in Taiwan and 0.3% in India and Singapore.
The prices of oil and gold are 0.6% and 1.0% firmer. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are also under upward pressure, with gains overnight of six basis points in Italy, four bps in Germany, France and Spain, three bps in the United States and two basis points in Great Britain.
The G7 Summit in Rio De Janeiro is underway. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar has complained that ” information we received [from the summit] regarding a draft of a summary resolution is both unbalanced and biased against Israel.”
Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan underscored the cautious approach being taken to exiting their ultra-loose monetary stance. European Central Bank Vice President Guindos warned against excessive government debt but also said that economic risks that officials face are shifting from high inflation to weak growth.
Czech producer price inflation that imploded from 28.5% in mid-2022 to as low as -1.8% in the first month of this year remained quite low at 0.8% in October.
The British Rightmove house price index sank 1.4% on month in November, resulting in a 12-month increase of just 1.2%.
But New Zealand producer price figures reported today depicted more intractable inflation than expected. Producer input prices jumped 1.9% last quarter, most in nine quarters, and a 1.5% increase in producer output prices was the steepest quarterly advance in two years. A separate New Zealand indicator out today was the service sector purchasing managers index for October, which rose 0.3 points to a six-month high but, at 46.0, remained significantly under the 50 neutral level that separates improving conditions from deterioration.
Japanese core private domestic machinery orders unexpectedly fell for a third straight month in September, this time by 0.7%. In the third quarter on average, such dropped 4.7% from the 2Q level, while export orders slumped 15.3%.
Euroland’s trade surplus printed at EUR 12.5 billion in September, up from 9.8 billion euros in September 2023. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the surplus widened to a 2-month high of EUR 13.6 billion, but the EUR 14.2 billion per month average last quarter was down from a mean of EUR 15.3 billion in the second quarter and the smallest quarterly average since October-December of 2023.
Year-on-year growth in Swiss industrial production halved to 3.5% last quarter from 7.0% in the second quarter.
Chinese foreign direct investment in the first ten months of 2024 plunged 29.8% year on year compared to a year earlier.
On-year GDP growth in Thailand accelerated to 3.0% last quarter from 2.3% in the second quarter and 1.4% in the third quarter of 2023.
Copyright 2024, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, Euroland trade surplus, Group of Twenty summit in RIO, Japanese machinery orders
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