Silver Attracts Speculators. Forecast as of 16.01.2026 | LiteFinance
If the US decision to delay tariffs on critical minerals failed to stop XAG/USD bulls, what could? Higher mining and processing volumes? Rising costs? Unlikely, as long as silver remains in the hands of speculators. Let’s discuss this and make a trading plan.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- The US tariff delay did not derail XAG/USD.
- Silver’s rally is largely speculative.
- Physical market imbalances are intensifying.
- Long positions on XAG/USD targeting 98 and 100 remain in play.
Monthly Fundamental Forecast for Silver
If someone told me an asset had tripled in value over a year and hit new record highs, I would have bet on Bitcoin. Yet the cryptocurrency remains stuck in consolidation, repeatedly failing to break higher, while the correct answer is silver. The white metal surged by 150% in 2025, and early 2026 has been the strongest start to a year in its history. After gaining about 25% in the first two weeks of January, XAG/USD broke above its 1980 record, when the increase stood at 23%.
Bitcoin’s loss of momentum and silver’s breathtaking rally share the same underlying driver: volatility. In cryptocurrencies, volatility has steadily declined as institutional confidence has grown. In silver, by contrast, it has surged sharply, highlighting the speculative nature of the XAG/USD rally.
Silver Price and Volatility Trends
Source: Bloomberg.
This also explains why silver barely pulled back after Donald Trump’s decision not to impose tariffs on imports of critical minerals. Earlier tariff fears had driven bullion flows into the US, creating shortages elsewhere. Silver inventories on COMEX in New York have reached 434 million ounces, up by 100 million ounces compared to a year ago.
Silver bulls argue that the metal’s resilience reflects the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump’s policy stance. In their view, tariffs were postponed, not canceled, and could still be introduced at any time, keeping silver on the watchlist.
In reality, there is further evidence that XAG/USD has become detached from fundamentals. Commodity markets are cyclical: higher prices boost supply and curb demand, eventually pushing prices lower. A threefold rise in silver prices should stimulate both mining and refining. At the same time, it creates challenges for solar panel manufacturers. In 2024, silver accounted for 14% of production costs; in 2025, that share jumped to 29%. For comparison, it was just 3.4% in 2023.
Metal Price Dynamics
Source: Bloomberg.
XAG/USD bulls largely ignore these factors. Instead, they focus on the so-called debasement trade, where metals serve as alternatives to traditional assets such as currencies and bonds. Increased exposure to metals in investment portfolios has pushed prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin to record highs.
Assets driven by speculative price action are hard to forecast. They often rise simply because they are rising, attracting buyers focused on past gains. It is therefore no surprise that Citigroup sees XAG/USD climbing toward $100, while Lotus Asset Management projects a move to $150.
Monthly Trading Plan for XAGUSD
In my view, as long as speculative demand remains strong and silver holds above the $85-per-ounce support, pullbacks can be used to build long positions in the white metal, with targets at $98 and $100.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XAGUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
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