Slow and Uncertain Start to an Important Week – Currency Thoughts
Slow and Uncertain Start to an Important Week
August 19, 2024
Equity markets this Monday have traded mixed, with a few significantly drops such as -1.8% in Japan, -0.9% in South Korea and 0.5% in New Zealand outnumbered by rises elsewhere of less than 1%. U.S. stock futures were up by the thinnest of margins shortly before the opening bell of trading. The German Dax and British Ftse were up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Ten-year sovereign debt yields had edged up 1 basis point in the U.S., Germany, and U.K. and unchanged in France, Spain, and Italy. The dollar had fallen 0.8% against the yen but just 0.1% versus the euro, loonie, and Swiss franc. Dollar/sterling was unchanged. Bitcoin had appreciated 0.2%, whereas gold and oil showed dips of 0.4%.
From a data release perspective, today has been inconsequential with just a few non-surprising releases. Looming over the marketplace are two events that could clarify to main themes recently affecting global financial markets.
- Will the Democratic Convention that runs from tonight through Thursday solidify the good feeling kickoff of the Harris campaign or instead become the mother of deja vu moments? Ironically, it’s being held in Chicago, the scene of the 1968 DNC fiasco, and the ethics of war, like then, will be on trial.
- At this inflection point in the cycle of monetary policy, the annual Jackson Hole Symposium that runs Thursday through Saturday will hopefully shed further light on the likely path of monetary policies not just by the Fed but also central banks in the U.K., Euroland, and Japan.
Private core domestic machinery orders in Japan rose 2.1% in June, beating expectations by a factor of almost two. Nonetheless, this leading barometer of future business investment fell 0.1% on average in the second quarter. Export orders for machinery, however, surged 21.7% in the quarter.
The British Rightmove house price index fell 1.5% this month and was just 0.8% higher than its year-earlier month.
Spain’s EUR 713 million trade deficit in June was its narrowest gap in 15 months and well below the monthly average deficit of EUR 3.38 billion during 2023.
Malaysia’s trade surplus in July of MYR 6.4 billion was the smallest surplus in 73 months.
Real GDP in Thailand slowed to a quarterly pace of 0.8% in 2Q 2024, but the 2.3% on-year growth rate was the most in five quarters.
Israeli GDP was below its year-earlier level for a third straight quarter in 2Q, recording a drop of 1.2% following slides of 1.2% in 1Q and 4.0% in the final quarter of 2024.
New Zealand’s service sector purchasing managers index printed below the 50 breakeven level once again in July but recovered from the prior month’s 33-month low of 40.7 to 44.6.
Producer price inflation in Moldova during July matched June’s -0.8% reading. Such was the seventh straight sub-zero percent result and down from +34.5% in October of 2022.
Copyright 2024, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Democratic National Convention, Jackson Hole Symposium on Monetary Policy
ShareThisYou can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
