Some Bottom-Fishing while Awaiting Delayed U.S. Data

November 17, 2025

(165) Monday saw a tentative and partial reversal of sharp financial market movements last week.

The price of Bitcoin rebounded 1.2%.
Ten-year sovereign debt yields have settled back four basis points in Italy, three bps in the United States, Spain and Great Britain, and two bps in Germany and France. Alternatively, the 10-year Japanese JGB yield is 3 bps higher.
The dollar recouped some modest ground, firming 0.3% against the Australian currency and 0.2% versus the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Turkish lira. Relationships against the currencies of neighboring Mexico and Canada have not changed, and the greenback has dipped 0.1% relative to sterling.
Some Asian stock markets bounced higher such as those in South Korea (+1.9%), Taiwan (+0.9%), Indonesia (+0.6%) and India (+0.5%), while further slides occurred in Hong Kong (-0.7%), India (-0.5%), China (-0.5%) and Japan (-0.1%). Euroland equities have shed around 0.5% so far, while the British FTSE has dipped only 0.1%. U.S. futures have also moved hardly at all.
And the same can be said about the prices of gold and oil.

Once considered a strong bet, financial market participants now view the likelihood of a further interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month as a slightly less-than-even possibility. Investors are hoping for some clarity from delayed U.S. September employment and wage data, now scheduled for Thursday. Other U.S. figures may also be reported later in the week, but exact times haven’t been nailed down as yet.

The most significant data release today from outside the United States was Japanese third quarter gross domestic product, which yielded a slightly smaller-than-feared 0.4% drop of activity (-1.8% annualized) from the previous period. This reversed most of the second quarter’s increase of 2.3% annualized, mainly reflecting net foreign demand and non-residential investment. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth swung from +0.9 percentage points in 2Q to a drag of 1.0 percentage point last quarter, and business investment went from a neutral impact on GDP in 2Q to a negative one of a bit more than 1% in 3Q. The year-on-year rise of the GDP price deflator slipped to a one-year low of 2.8% from 2.9% in the previous quarter and 3.3% in the first quarter of 2025.

Revised Japanese industrial production in September also was announced today, printing at an 18-month high of +2.6%, which exceeded the preliminary estimate of 2.2% and was associated with a 3.8% increase from September 2024. In spite of the September increases, however, production in the third quarter only ticked 0.1% above the second quarter’s average, and the 3Q25-over-2Q24 advance 0f 0.7% was less than the 0.9% on-year increase in the second quarter. Capacity usage last quarter fell 2.3% below the second quarter’s level and was just 0.9% above a year earlier.

Third-quarter GDP statistics were also released today in Switzerland, Thailand, Mongolia and Israel. An eight-quarter streak of positive Swiss growth ended with a 0.5% decline, which was the worst outcome in 21 quarters. Real GDP in Thailand contracted last quarter as well, falling by the most (-0.6%) in four years, which more than halved year-on-year GDP growth from 2.8% in 2Q to a 4-year low last quarter of 1.2%. In Mongolia, however, GDP climbed 1.4% on quarter and 5.9% on year, and a 12.4% annualized rise of Israeli GDP was the best result in six quarters.

Among reported price data today, Italian consumer price inflation in October was confirmed at the earlier estimate of 1.2%, lowest in a year and down from a 2025 high point of 1.9% in April. A 9.3% on-year rise of CPI inflation in Kyrgyzstan last month was almost as bad as the 23-month high of 9.5% touched in August and way above a 55-month low of 3.8% in August 2024. Bulgarian CPI inflation returned to August’s 5.3% after edging up to 5.6% in September. Danish producer prices dipped 0.2% on month in September and slowed to an 18-month low year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Food price inflation in New Zealand rose to 4.7% in October, still shy of the 19-month high of 5.0% in July and August. Canadian CPI inflation of 2.2% in October was at a 2-month low.

The British Rightmove house price index was 0.5% lower this month than a year ago, its largest 12-month decline in 21 months.

Due to a particularly high U.S. tariff against goods, India’s trade deficit soared to a record high $41.68 billion in October. That compared with a deficit of $26.2 billion in October 2024 and a monthly average gap of $23.8 billion during the first nine months of this year.

New Zealand’s service sector purchasing managers index in October rose 0.4 points to 48.7, indicating the slowest rate of service sector contraction in three months.

The European Union Commission updated its forecasts for GDP growth. This exercise is done in the spring and autumn each year. Based on a better trajectory so far this year than assumed six months ago, 2025 growth has been bumped higher to 1.3% from 0.9% projected earlier. But with growth forecasts of 1.2% next year and 1.4% in 2027, officials do not anticipate further acceleration soon.

The Empire State manufacturing survey this month yielded an unexpected rise in this New York regional measure to a 12-month high of 18.7 from an October reading of 10.7.

Tags: India’s record trade deficit, Japanese GDP and industrial production

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on Monday, November 17th, 2025 at 6:38 am and is filed under New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update.
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