Speculator Extremes: AUD, Soybean Oil, Bitcoin & Bloomberg Index lead weekly Bullish Bets

BySilas W

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 31st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied this week at the top of the extreme standings as the AUD speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 19 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 81,506 net contracts this week with a boost of 10,634 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Soybean Oil

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied as well at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a strong gain of 39 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 134,557 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 17,422 contracts in speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Bitcoin speculator position also comes in at the top of the most bullish extreme standings this week with the Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 13 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 2,253 net contracts this week with an increase of 147 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position surged to tie at the top of this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range as the six-week trend for the speculator strength score spiked higher by 74.4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position is currently 23,297 net contracts this week with a gain of 35,029 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Wheat speculator position comes up number five in the extreme standings this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a jump of 41 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -9,415 net contracts this week with a boost of 7,673 contracts in the speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -21,601 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,485 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Extreme Bearish Leader
The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -35 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,637,324 net contracts this week with a small rise of 855 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

Extreme Bearish Leader
The British Pound speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The GBP speculator level resides at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -4 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -52,665 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,757 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing. The Natural Gas speculator level is at a 25 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 12 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -167,456 net contracts this week with an increase of 5,151 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

Extreme Bearish Leader
Next, the Silver speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The Silver speculator level sits at a 27 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was showed no change this week and the speculator position was 23,904 net contracts this week with a retreat by -769 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.


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