From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4% “Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. emphasis added This was below the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an…
by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 08:04:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for…
by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 01:21:00 PM The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales…
by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2026 10:54:00 AM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand. Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.” Click on graph for larger image. Heavy…
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2026 07:53:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Holding at 2-Month Low Excerpt: Bottom line: at current levels, any day that rates spend holding steady or moving microscopically lower will technically result in the lowest rates since October 28th. It would take a more noticeable improvement to break…
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2026 02:51:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP A brief excerpt: Three years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs….
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2026 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 47.9% in December, down from 48.2% in November. The employment index was at 44.9%, up from 44.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.7%, up from 47.4%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2026 06:13:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026 Monday:• Early, Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). • At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2026 08:12:00 AM Here is another update on lumber prices. NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was…