by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 08:36:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic…
by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2025 07:45:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 4th…
by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2025 10:40:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were revised up.…The next…
by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2025 07:41:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is that new home…
by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2025 04:16:00 PM A few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal…
by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2025 01:11:00 PM The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024The banking industry reported full-year net income of $268.2 billion, up $14.1 billion (5.6 percent) from 2023. The aggregate return-on-assets ratio (ROA) increased 3 basis points to 1.12 percent. The increase…
by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2025 07:06:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a day later. end of last week.…The…
by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2025 12:56:00 PM From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content). Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the trough caused by the pandemic and supply-chain…
by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2025 06:17:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025 • Housing Starts and Recessions Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. From CNBC: Pre-Market…
by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2025 11:04:00 AM This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. “.. Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts,…