by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending February 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,000,…
by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 08:15:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price…
by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2025 12:34:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called “neutral” interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about the nominal interest rate. However, the theoretical “neutral” interest…
by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase…
by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 02:13:00 PM The Consumer Price Index for January is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY. From Goldman…
by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2025 09:32:00 AM This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET and also on C-SPAN 3. Report here. An excerpt: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The…
by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 07:17:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates have operated…
by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.3% from the bottom four weeks ago. Inventory has been little changed over the last 4 weeks. The first…
by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 12:01:00 AM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $71.00 per…
by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2025 08:19:00 AM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while institutional planning improved 8.7%. “Nonresidential…