by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for…
by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2025 06:45:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel…
by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2025 10:17:00 AM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year • Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent…
by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, January 13th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, January 14th —–…
by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 04:05:00 PM A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. … The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged labor force participation rate, at…
by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 01:02:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close to our tracking of 3.0%. [Jan 10th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our…
by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 09:47:00 AM The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation…
by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following…
by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 07:46:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer…