by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 12:04:00 PM At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don’t have all data yet, but enough). I’ve linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 10:52:00 AM From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 09:09:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024. CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 07:55:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 02:03:00 PM From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. As the nation’s population surpasses 340 million, this…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2024 05:31:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million in…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2024 02:09:00 PM Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although there are some “base…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2024 07:07:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2024 01:00:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2024 07:13:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn’t great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a…