by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2024 12:45:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now…
by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2024 09:12:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Down Slightly Year-over-year in May; Multi-Family Starts Down 50% A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in May were below expectations, however, starts in March and April were revised up slightly, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison…
by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2024 08:32:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately‐owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,277,000. This is 5.5 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,352,000 and is 19.3 percent below the May 2023 rate of 1,583,000. Single‐family housing starts…
by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2024 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending June 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 242,000 to 243,000. The 4-week moving average was 232,750,…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2024 07:52:00 PM Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.380 million SAAR, up from 1.360 million SAAR in April. • Also, at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2024 01:51:00 PM Yesterday, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote: Last week’s benign US inflation data reinforced our view that the Q1 spike was an aberration. Meanwhile, the labor market stands at a potential inflection point where a further softening in labor demand would hit actual jobs, not just open…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2024 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 43, down from 45 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: High Mortgage Rates Act as a Drag on Builder…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2024 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 14, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2024 07:27:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At…
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2024 04:26:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National…