by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2025 10:59:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales increased to 800,000 Annual Rate in August Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 800 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined.…The…
by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2025 07:56:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2025 05:11:00 PM From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpts: In the labor market, there has been a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers—an unusual and challenging development. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment have risen. The unemployment…
by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2025 12:17:00 PM I’ve been tracking the weak hotel occupancy numbers in the U.S. Meanwhile, Canadian hotels are reporting strong numbers! From CoStar: Canadian travelers push their home and native land to record summer highs Canada’s hotel performance this summer has been historically strong, with August bringing in the highest occupancy…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 07:17:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged to Start New Week After hitting the lowest levels in nearly a year (and nearly the lowest levels in 3 years) last Tuesday, rates lurched higher following Wednesday’s Fed announcement. While the Fed cut rates as expected,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 01:01:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release August Existing Home sales on Thursday, September 25th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 3.98…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 10:58:00 AM First, shutdowns are expensive, and many government employees continue to work (like the military), but don’t get paid. In the past, all employees who didn’t work were paid in full. Second, there will be an impact on GDP. Depending on the length of the shutdown, this will negatively…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line…
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2025 06:23:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of September 12, 2025 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 7 and DOW futures are down 56 (fair value)….
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2025 09:55:00 AM This is something I check occasionally. The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported: Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.7% (+4.9 billion vehicle miles) for July 2025 as compared with July 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 296.0 billion vehicle miles. The seasonally adjusted…