by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 12:24:00 PM From Goldman: We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.3%. We left our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.1%. [August 21st estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for…
When I appeared at this podium one year ago, the economy was at an inflection point. Our policy rate had stood at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent for more than a year. That restrictive policy stance was appropriate to help bring down inflation and to foster a sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply. Inflation had…
by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 08:29:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 08:12:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook and Framework Review, At the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming Source link
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 02:11:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 August. … 10-16 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 66.3% (-0.9%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.51 (+0.4%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$104.50 (-0.5%)emphasis added The following…
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 10:50:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July; Up 0.8% YoY Excerpt: On prices, the NAR reported: • $422,400: Median existing-home price for all housing types, up 0.2% from one year ago ($421,400) – the 25th consecutive month of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Increase in July Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. … Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in…
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,250, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 07:40:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 226 thousand from 224 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 02:00:00 PM This is a little stale since this meeting was before the July employment report. From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29–30, 2025. Excerpt: n their discussion of inflation, many participants observed that overall inflation remained somewhat above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal….