by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2025 09:01:00 AM Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to cut the Fed Funds rate 25bp in September, with a second rate cut in December. From…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY • New Home Sales Increase to 627,000 Annual Rate in June • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales…
by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the July employment report. Other key reports include May Case-Shiller house prices, July ISM manufacturing index and July vehicle sales. The FOMC meets this week and no change to the Fed Funds rate is expected. —–…
by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 05:01:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 02:01:00 PM The advance estimate of Q2 GDP will be released next Wednesday. The consensus is real GDP increased at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2. BofA economists noted this morning: “The increase in the headline print would be on the back of a reversal of the surge in imports…
by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 10:56:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that…
by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 08:11:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 July. … 13-19 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 71.6% (-2.6%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$165.49 (-0.7%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$118.54 (-3.3%) emphasis added The following…
by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2025 07:54:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET,Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 10.0% decrease in durable goods orders. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2025 04:21:00 PM From J.D. Power: New-Vehicle Retail Sales Up 4.1% for July and Consumer Spending Sets Record for Month with $49.8 Billion Spent on New Vehicles Brief excerpt: The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.4 million units, up 0.8 million units from…
by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2025 02:12:00 PM From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Trend Slightly Higher in June as Foreclosure Activity Continues to Rise off Pandemic-Era Lows Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) … today released its June 2025 ICE First Look, which shows that while overall mortgage payment performance remains strong, delinquencies…