by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 01:11:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is up to 2.7% q/q saar from 1.8% q/q saar and 1Q GDP is up two-tenths to 0.0% q/q saar. [June 6th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report indicated that April exports…
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 11:10:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in April Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in May compared to April. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 205.2, representing a 4% increase from the same time last year…
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 09:06:00 AM The headline jobs number in the May employment report was slightly above expectations, however, March and April payrolls were revised down by 95,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation…
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued…
by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2025 08:08:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for May. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2025 04:58:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2025 01:00:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for May. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 177,000 jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs:…
by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 07:30:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $117.3 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $140.5 Billion in March. • Also…
by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 04:00:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book Reports across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report. Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth. All Districts reported elevated levels…
by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2025 12:58:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons:…