Canada’s gross domestic product report for July next Friday will be closely watched to see if cooling in the economy in late Q2 extended into Q3. Early reports are pointing to a 0.1% increase in July GDP that would be slightly higher than the advance estimate for an unchanged reading a month ago but would…
Wednesday will mark a much anticipated first interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Gradual but persistent labour market softening and slowing inflation make it clear that current high interest rates are no longer needed. Indeed, the U.S. unemployment rate ticked lower in August but that was after having trended persistently higher over the…
The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points, to 4.25%, while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). The Bank noted the recent softening in economic data, affirming that “preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July” and that “the labour market continues to…
We expect another 25-bps cut to the overnight rate (to 4.25%) from the BoC meeting next week to build on cuts already delivered in each of the prior two meetings in June and July. Comments from Governor Macklem will likely again err on the dovish side, continuing to emphasize a softening economic backdrop that makes…
Canada’s GDP report next week is expected to show further weakening in the Canadian economy. We expect a 1.4% (annualized rate) increase in GDP in Q2 – below Statistics Canada’s 2% preliminary estimate a month ago, and marking the 7th of the last 8 quarters of declining output on a per-capita basis. Growth in GDP…
Newsquawk.com Week Ahead 19th-23rd August 2024: Highlights include Jackson Hole, FOMC Minutes, ECB Minutes, Canadian and Japanese CPI, and Flash PMI data MON: US Democratic National Convention (Aug 19-22), Bank of Indonesia Announcement, New Zealand Trade Balance (Jul) TUE: US Democratic National Convention (Aug 19-22), PBoC LPR, RBA Minutes, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT Announcement, EZ Final…
The Canadian jobs report for July next Friday is expected to show more softening in the labour market. Employment gains have already slowed substantially into the summer, and we expect July will be no exception with 15,000 new jobs added. Against a still rapidly rising population, the unemployment rate will likely have ticked higher again…
Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the…
Summary of deliberations from BoC’s June meeting revealed consensus among Governing Council members, who noted “four consecutive months” of easing in core inflation and indicators suggesting continued downward momentum. They concluded that there had been “sufficient progress” to warrant the initial rate cut. BoC decided to reduce its policy rate by 25bps to 4.75% during…
U.S. Highlights The U.S. economy added 272k jobs in May, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%. The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Indexes showed manufacturing activity continued to contract in May, while services activity returned to growth. Central banks in Canada and Europe started to cut interest rates this week, which has heightened the focus…