by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2024 11:12:00 AM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Total U.S. carloads were down 6.0% in May 2024 from May 2023, their fifth straight year-over-year decline. Year-to-date total carloads through May were down 5.0%, or 247,984 carloads, from last year and…
by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2024 06:18:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 9, 2024 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $75.37 per barrel and Brent…
by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2024 09:40:00 AM Most analysts expect there will be no change to the federal funds rate at the meeting this week keeping the target range at 5‑1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. Currently market participants expect the next Fed move to be a 25 bp cut announced at the November FOMC meeting. The…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q1 • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 6.5% Year-over-year • ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Home…
by Calculated Risk on 6/08/2024 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is May CPI. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged. —– Monday, June 10th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, June 11th —– 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April. —–…
by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2024 07:53:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2024 04:45:00 PM From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in May Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in May compared to April. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 197.3, a decline of 12.1% from a year ago. The seasonal…
by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2024 01:15:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q1 Excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity – jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” – and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had…
by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2024 12:36:00 PM The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $160.8 trillion during the first quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $3.8 trillion and…
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2024 07:47:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for May. The consensus is for 180,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. 12:00 PM: Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of…